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May 2, 2025 Swan Dive — May 2, 2025 Consumers Get the Squeeze as Tech Profits Hold Strong Addison Wiggin De La Rue, the nearly 300-year-old British company that prints banknotes for 150 nations, just posted a 63% drop in profits. The ink's drying up — literally. But make no mistake: money creation hasn’t slowed. It’s just gone stealth mode. Central banks digitally mint trillions with the tap of a key. In this landscape, physical money is dead. But monetary hedges are not. Physical gold — reclassified as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III — is regaining institutional favor. It’s unprintable, unhackable, and unyielding to interest-rate whims. Individual investors, especially those managing retirement portfolios, should take note: central banks are diversifying into gold for a reason — and you probably aren’t getting that same memo in your 401(k) statement. This Has To Be About Money. A LOT of Money... I thought these Texans lost their minds… A party? With a former U.S. president? In a rusty, old processing plant? In the middle of nowhere??? But then I found out why… They’re about to become a lot richer — Texas RICHER. And there’s an exciting way you can get in on this new boom too!  Click for details. 🟠 Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet: Jeftovic’s Early Bet Looks Prescient  On Grey Swan Live! yesterday, Mark Jeftovic gave one of the clearest articulations of bitcoin’s evolving role: not a speculation, but a signal. He added BTC to his network company’s balance sheet in 2013. Now, corporations like Strategy, Tesla, Block (formerly Square), and even regional banks and asset managers like BlackRock are quietly accumulating bitcoin. With fiat credibility under pressure, bitcoin may soon be less of a volatility gamble and more of a trust hedge. For the self-directed investor: consider whether having zero exposure to BTC in a world of currency manipulation is the riskier position. Whether you trust bitcoin or not, at least get off of zero if you still don’t hold any. 💻 Big Tech: Still the Last Bastion of Market Confidence  Markets stayed in the green this week thanks to upbeat earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and now Apple. Amazon’s numbers were strong, beating expectations by 16%, but their guidance reflects a still-uncertain future. Overall, the current rally is narrow. Underneath the indexes, nearly 60% of S&P 500 companies are trading below their 200-day moving averages. For retirees and long-term savers: Don’t mistake today’s tech strength for market health. Tech might carry the indexes, but diversification — especially into real assets, dividend-paying sectors, and defensive equities — matters more than ever in volatile conditions. 🎮 Tariff Shrapnel Hits Consumer Tech New White House tariffs now target video game consoles and peripheral devices, adding to the list of consumer goods set to spike in price by Q4. Sony and Nintendo are already warning of higher holiday retail prices and possible supply disruptions. Both companies are stealth tech plays. Microsoft already bit the bullet and raised the prices of new Xbox games from about $70 to $80. Interestingly, new video games have generally been priced in the $70-80 range since the 1990s, meaning even after inflation, they’re still lower in real terms today. Technology is deflationary, but, alas, the digital printing presses run faster. Investors with consumer discretionary exposure should be cautious. These tariffs don’t just hurt margins — they also signal escalating trade fragmentation, which means winners and losers in the sector will be separated by supply chain resilience. 💼 Jobless Claims Rise — Eyes Now on Payrolls  Initial jobless claims came in at 232,000, slightly above forecasts. Continuing claims rose to their highest since 2021. Layoffs are still modest, but the trend is clear: the labor market is losing momentum, even if the unemployment rate stayed unchanged. The Fed is watching, and so should you. For retirement planners: labor softness today could give the Fed the green light they need to ease rates next Wednesday when they meet… and save Powell from Trump’s tweet ire. If rate cuts come sooner than expected, consider how that may impact your bond holdings — especially those with longer duration or exposure to corporate debt. The market will likely rally big on the news, too. 🍔 Consumers Pull Back, and It Shows in the Fryer McDonald’s U.S. sales fell 3.2% in Q1 — the steepest quarterly decline since 2020. Kraft Heinz trimmed guidance. Chipotle and Starbucks flagged weaker traffic and tighter wallets. Consumers aren’t panicking — but they’re prioritizing needs over wants. That sentiment is your bellwether. For long-term investors, watch where the average family is spending. Staples over indulgences. Utilities over travel. This shift will ripple through earnings seasons to come. Position accordingly. 🌾 Food Price Forecasts Clash: Bank vs. Reality Amid all the sturm and drang of the global trade reset, the World Bank reports they expect food prices will fall 7% this year. That’s a good trend for everyone. The UN’s global food index just hit a two-year high — driven by tariff anxiety, energy cost ripples, and disrupted trade routes. Investors in agriculture, commodity ETFs, or global equities should understand: the food trade is now political. Watch for government interference in ag exports and fertilizer flow. That’s where the real inflation risk now hides. 🌍 China’s Export Spillover Jolts Europe  As Trump’s tariffs choke Chinese goods headed to the U.S., those shipments are rerouting into the EU. Bloomberg Economics says it could cut eurozone inflation by up to 1.5% — triggering rate-cut pressure from the ECB. Germany is already lobbying for “stimulus flexibility.” For globally diversified investors, this matters: currency differentials, capital flows, and yield spreads and non-tariff trade barriers are all open wide during the Trump reshape of global trade. And will also shape your international returns far more than earnings growth. 🛢️ Oil Spikes After Trump Threatens Iran (Again) Trump’s latest tweet: “Any country or person buying ANY AMOUNT of oil or petrochemicals from Iran will face Secondary Sanctions.” No nuance, no filter — just market-moving words. Brent crude jumped 3.7% on the headline alone. If you’re betting on clean energy stocks, don’t ignore the geopolitical risk premium that still rules oil. Fossil fuels are not going quietly — and they still determine inflation’s next move. Our Shad Marquitz has a lot to say on the matter, here.  ⚒️ Ukraine’s Mineral Deal: U.S. Locks In Strategic Leverage  This week, Trump approved $50 million in aid to Ukraine — and sealed a landmark deal for access to 57 of its critical minerals, including lithium, titanium, and rare earths. These aren’t just rocks. They’re the raw inputs for AI chips, EV batteries, and smart defense systems. For investors: This is where the 21st-century industrial policy is headed. If you're still thinking about oil barrels and shipping containers, shift your lens. Finally, we’re getting down to what the war in Ukraine has been about all along – trade, minerals and energy. And the fight for supply chain security. – Addison P.S. Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic is now unlocked for paid members. If you missed his breakdown of how bitcoin is emerging as the balance sheet antidote to monetary decay, watch the replay here. As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.) How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.) Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com

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