| Swan Dive — May 12, 2025 Deals and Illusions Andrew Packer After decades of institutions, alliances, and trade pacts built on mutual interest and handshake diplomacy, the Trump Doctrine is something else entirely: "What's in it for me?"
At least that’s the only narrative the media can come up with while following him around on Air Force One.
This weekend's surprise tariff “deal” with China is a perfect case study.
After weeks of tension and sky-high levies, the U.S. has agreed to slash tariffs from 145% to 30%. China matched, dropping its tariffs from 125% to 10%. Investors cheered temporarily.
But this isn’t a return to the old order — it’s another chapter in Trump’s ongoing remaking of it.
From NATO to NAFTA to the WTO, Trump has systematically gutted or reengineered global agreements to reflect short-term, unilateral wins.
This deal with China? It’s a 90-day timeout, not a treaty. A transactional stall, not a pivot to stability. 90 days likely won’t be enough time to negotiate a trade deal, so expect the timeout to keep getting extended.
If you’re managing your own money and making your own trades, the message is clear: don’t expect predictability to return anytime soon.
And maybe that’s a good thing. 💊A Campaign Prescription Following another lead, President Trump also announced Americans will no longer foot the world’s highest drug bills.
With today’s executive order, prices will be tied to the lowest paid globally — a bold move, and one likely to face legal, political, and especially corporate resistance before you ever see it reflected at the pharmacy counter.
It’s an old promise, recycled just in time to take effect for midterms. For investors in healthcare and biotech, the shockwaves are more uncertainty.
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From Riyadh, with Money Trump’s second-term foreign policy tour starts today in the Middle East, where he’s chasing what he calls a “$1 trillion commitment” from oil-rich allies.
His trip mirrors his first-term debut, right down to the Saudi orb — but this time, there’s less symbolism and more checkbooks. With BlackRock, IBM, and Citigroup execs tagging along, the whole thing reads less like diplomacy and more like a corporate roadshow.
This isn’t about alliances. It’s about access. The kind that gets bundled into deals, gilded jets (see below), and market-moving headlines. And if you’re wondering what’s funding this global charm offensive — spoiler alert — it isn’t austerity. 🛫 A Gift-Wrapped Jet and an Ethics Quagmire Qatar’s royal family is reportedly handing Trump a custom Boeing 747-8, worth an estimated $400 million, to use as Air Force One. As Boeing continues to delay the official replacement plane (originally due in 2024, now 2027 at best), the Qatari jet conveniently fills the gap — and likely raises every red flag you can imagine.
The DOJ says it’s fine. Democrats are already preparing subpoenas. 📊 The Quiet Before the Next Shake Markets ended last week in a near-coma, with all three indexes barely moving.
But this week brings action: Tuesday’s CPI numbers will test whether inflation is back under control. Thursday offers a retail gut check and earnings from Walmart.
Meanwhile, the little-known Court of International Trade will hear its first major challenge to Trump’s tariff authority. If they find he overstepped, the entire trade agenda — including this shiny new deal with China — could start to unravel.
This morning’s gap higher in markets may prove to be little more than resistance. And the drop in risk-off assets such as gold today may prove a buying opportunity. 🧪 Theranos 2.0: The Family Business Lives On Billy Evans, partner to Elizabeth Holmes (yes, that one), is raising funds for a new diagnostics startup.
Same pitch: small samples, big promises, revolutionizing medicine. This time, it includes saliva and urine too. Investors should be asking not just what could go wrong, but why does anyone believe this playbook still works?
If the pitch is successful, consider it a warning for how much hype is back in the markets today. 🎟️ “Convenience Fees” Get Rebranded, Not Removed The FTC’s new rule kicks in today, requiring total costs be disclosed upfront on concert tickets and lodging sites.
It’s a win for transparency — but don’t expect the fees to disappear. The fine print is just being resized, not eliminated. And as always, regulators are catching up years after the market moved on. And not in ways that actually benefit consumers. Beneath It All, Lies the Fear of a Real Crisis According to the Allianz Retirement Study, 64% of Americans fear outliving their savings more than death. Gen X tops the list at 70%, and millennials aren’t far behind. Even many boomers—supposedly the best-prepared generation—say they’re worried.
The fear is rational.
Inflation, healthcare costs, tax uncertainty, and market volatility are making every dollar feel suspect. The system retirees thought they were retiring into is evolving faster than they can plan for.
Trump’s brand of dealmaking thrives in chaos, spectacle, and ambiguity. But for Americans managing real portfolios with finite resources, the consequences are lasting.
You can’t hedge your retirement with pageantry. And no 90-day tariff pause is going to restore long-term stability.
The world order as we know it is being dismantled — in public, in real time, with gold-plated gifts and executive orders standing in for policy.
If you’re navigating retirement in this environment, the illusion of control is just that: an illusion. But knowledge? That’s still a form of leverage.
It’s a form of leverage that can put you into safe assets, like gold, which we still see as a strong winner here. Uncertainty will rise and fall – but global liquidity is rising, and central banks continue to add to their gold holdings.
And don’t write off bitcoin, which has gone from a low of $75,000 to knocking on $105,000 in just a month.
All of Trump’s dealmaking is just rearranging the deck chairs on the fiat money system, a Titanic where we all have a berth, whether we like it or not.
~Addison P.S. Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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