| Ripple Effect — May 2, 2025
The stock market is pretty efficient at pricing in new data. Just one month ago, as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech unfolded, stocks fell off a cliff in real time.
And continued to do so as tariff rates ratcheted up in the week that followed.
But since then, cooler heads have prevailed, many tariffs have been suspended, and a one-month look at the S&P 500 even before today’s jobs data shows that all the tariff talk has been… a nothing burger:  Yes, we may be in a recession. Stocks should be trending lower, not slipping into a bear market and immediately bouncing back.
But if it’s a recession where the government spending part of the GDP calculation is shrinking, that’s not a bad thing. To quote Jamieson Greer:
“We can no longer rely on government financing to drive economic growth. We must transition to an economy powered by the private sector — that’s what makes growth sustainable, competitive, and, ultimately, American.”
And that may be what stocks are hinting at today.
Nevertheless, the media hysteria will continue, and the feckless will continue to protest. For now, it looks like the investor class has caught on, repositioned itself, and is ready for further profits.
-Addison P.S. As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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