| Swan Dive — June 20, 2025 The Summer of AI Addison Wiggin Two weeks, three weeks, six… what’s the difference? If you are worried the war drums in the Middle East will hammer your portfolio, history says: not so fast.
Deutsche Bank tallied every geopolitical shock since 1939 — wars, invasions, missile crises — and found the S&P 500 typically drops 6% in the three weeks after… only to recover those losses in the three weeks that follow.
The only variable this time around might be the fact that we just experienced a similar crash and retests of historic highs following the Liberation Day tariff war.
The latest sound bites on repeat from the mainstream media surrounding the melee in the desert? President Trump telling the Iranians they have “two weeks” to get back to the bargaining table or Trump will make a decision for them.
Unless you plan on trading the event – or loading up on defense stocks – it’s probably not wise to let your long-term investing decisions be dictated by the same algorithm that powers Truth Social. (Our internal research Slack channel is full of discussions about missile makers and AI-integrated weapons systems, more on that later.) 📉 Powell Hits Pause. Trump Hits Send. On Wednesday before the Juneteenth holiday, the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the target range at 4.25–4.5%. Despite cooling inflation and rising political pressure, Powell refused to blink.
“We’re going to learn a lot more over the summer,” he said, referring to tariffs and geopolitical noise. “It’s very, very hard to say.” Which, translated from Fed-speak, means: we’re guessing just like you.
President Trump also predictably turned up the rhetorical heat, launching a tirade against Powell for failing to cut rates. Between the “dummy” accusations and thinly veiled threats (“may have to force something”), it’s clear Trump expects monetary policy to toe the line — or else.
The market didn’t hate it – but didn’t love it either. Stocks dipped ever-so-slightly, inflation expectations rose (3.1% by year-end, says the Fed), and oil crept upward on renewed war jitters. Gold fell slightly — though only the boldest of contrarians are calling the top. Platinum, curiously, hit a four-year high. 🪙 The Silver Sleeper Awakens In the year of precious metals, silver is finally demanding the spotlight. The metal now flirts with $37.58/oz — a level it must hold through the end of June to secure the highest quarterly close ever.  That record close would surpass its previous record from Q1 2011, planting a psychological stake in the ground and confirming, for many investors, the start of a new bull market.
It’s remarkable — while the headlines scream about Iran and Trump’s next tweet, silver may be staging its most important rally in a generation. Perhaps it was always meant to be this way. Perhaps geopolitical chaos is the necessary smokescreen for a monetary shift decades in the making.
Earlier this week, the Senate passed the Guiding And Establishing National Innovation For U.S. Stablecoins Act of 2025 – aka, the GENIUS Act.
With customary aplomb, our buddy Porter Stansberry boasted that the “legislation enables the most important changes to the global monetary system since the Bretton Woods agreement following World War II.”
He’s not wrong.
Even without any legislation protecting them, stablecoins saw $28 trillion (yes, trillion with a “t”) in transaction volume last year, as they facilitate exchanges between different cryptocurrencies.
Both Mastercard and Visa dropped precipitously on the signing of the bill. Stablecoins use blockchain technology to make banking more direct, efficient, cheaper and private.
Amazon, Walmart and JPMorgan have filed for patent protection on their own payment systems. In effect, cutting out the middle men and their monopoly fees… much more on this story to come.
Under the GENIUS Act, it’s also possible for the Treasury to issue short-term bonds to backstop stablecoins. With stablecoin demand surging, and with these coins backed by Treasury bonds, the U.S. may just find a buyer for all that pesky debt it has to roll over after all – for now.
Elon Musk is set to roll out what could be the most disruptive technology of our lifetime.
A breakthrough AI project that has the potential to turn Elon into the world’s first trillionaire…
While trapping everyday Americans in an economic death spiral…
As things stand, most Americans are completely unprepared for what's coming…
That's why one ex-Wall Street insider has taken it upon himself to help everyday Americans prepare.
He’s identified a potential "backdoor" investment in this “project” that could help you land on the right side of this economic divide.
Full details here.
💡 Masayoshi Son’s Arizona AI Fantasy SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is reportedly plotting a trillion-dollar AI and robotics complex in Arizona, and he wants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) to come along for the ride.
TSMC, already investing $165 billion in U.S. operations, has begun production at its Arizona facility — but its involvement in Son’s moonshot is still uncertain. If this happens, we’re talking about a desert campus that would make the Apollo program look modest by comparison. 🧠 AI: The New Studio Executive Amazon’s Andy Jassy confirmed what workers suspected: AI will shrink headcount. Salesforce, Shopify, Duolingo, and Microsoft are all following suit.
And it’s not just customer service bots anymore. In the music business, AI is devouring the very artists it mimicked. Deezer’s platform is saturated with AI-generated songs that, according to nonprofit Fairly Trained, are cannibalizing royalties owed to real musicians.
“We’re seeing AI music shrink the royalty pool for human artists,” warns Ed Newton-Rex, an AI music specialist. The royalty group CISAC estimates AI-generated music could strip €10 billion ($11.5 billion) from human artists by 2028. So much for “empowering creators.” 🎢 Retail Traders vs. Robo-Gurus Robots are coming for your broker, too.
Generative tools like Perplexity now parse SEC filings. Robinhood’s Cortex and Interactive Brokers’ Reflexivity promise AI-driven strategies once reserved for buttoned-up quants.
But a word to the wise: if you’re following AI for stock picks, you’re the test subject.
Companies already tailor their earnings language to please the bots. Positive sentiment scores get picked up and parroted, regardless of actual performance. Let’s call it optimism laundering.
Helps to explain why retail stock buying amid a flurry of bad economic news and geopolitical angst is at historic highs. 📺 Netflix Eyes Nostalgia. Pan Am Reboots Luxury. After decimating the cable bundle, Netflix is now toying with live TV. Pan Am, now a $60,000 nostalgia tour in disguise, has taken to the skies with throwback uniforms and open bars.
In an AI-saturated world, maybe the real luxury is the illusion of the past — back when the flight attendants smiled, and the in-flight movie wasn’t an algorithmically generated recap of Fed minutes. 💰 Global Wealth Up — But for Whom? UBS says global wealth jumped 4.6% in 2024. Nearly 40% of that lives in the U.S., which also minted over 1,000 new millionaires per day last year.
That’s the good news. The other side? Most of that wealth sits atop a shrinking pool of opportunity for working people. It’s less tide-lifting boats, more yachts sailing past rowboats. The AI trend is only going to make the divide more obvious.
Of course, a rapid decline in the stock market would also make these paper gains disappear equally as fast.
To that end, here’s… 🔭 What We’re Watching Going Into The First Summer Weekend The Fed’s next meeting isn’t until July 29–30, and while most analysts still expect a rate cut in September, the Trump Factor looms large. Markets are already anticipating a more aggressive cycle once Powell’s term ends in 2026 and a new Trump-appointed chair takes over.
Meanwhile, corporate insiders are heading for the exits — 778 executives have sold shares through June 11, while only 200 bought, pushing the insider buy/sell ratio to 0.26, the lowest since November 2024.  The economic backdrop isn’t inspiring confidence either. The U.S. economic surprise index dropped to -23 on Tuesday — the lowest in nine months, and outside of 2024, the steepest drop in three years.  Industrial production, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs have all come in below expectations. The data is sending a clear signal: the U.S. economy is losing steam.
And if that weren’t enough, the S&P 500’s current trend line is eerily mirroring the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. More on that in today’s Ripple Effect…
Coincidence? Maybe. But history doesn’t always ring a bell before the floor gives out. Something big is coming.
~ Addison P.S: Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! Video with Chris Mayer is being posted to our site this morning. Paid-up members can enjoy our hour-ish conversation, covering our history in the world of financial publications – literally, as we toured the world together to open up new offices and research far-flung investment opportunities.
Chris also shared some of his investment ideas, including some of the best value plays in countries such as Sweden and Poland. For U.S. investors, tread lightly – these companies can only be bought on the pink sheets, where volume is light and prices can swing wildly. But if you’re looking for value now, going overseas may be just the place to do it.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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