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3 Energy Stocks That Could Rally If the Oil Bears Are Wrong
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/21/2025.
Key Points
- Chevron is growing Permian production and adding Guyana exposure after completing its Hess merger.
- Exxon Mobil is the largest Permian operator, with LNG and Guyana projects offering additional upside if demand strengthens.
- Schlumberger offers high-beta potential as long-cycle offshore and international projects accelerate with higher oil prices.
The OPEC+ decision to boost oil production has stoked fears of an oversupplied market. Those concerns are further fueled by the prospect of a peace deal—or at least a ceasefire—between Russia and Ukraine.
This macro narrative is weighing on energy stocks, making the sector one of the worst performers. Oil equities, in particular, have struggled to rally even as cash flows remain robust.
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Click here for the names of our three top stocks to own this year (no purchase necessary).However, the bear case for oil may be overdone. Demand appears underestimated, and if that changes, energy stocks could stage a comeback—potentially delivering significant gains in late 2025 into 2026. Some of the leading picks are already considered best-in-class.
The Bull Case for Higher Oil Prices
First, the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool assigns an 83.2% probability to a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut in 2025. Even a single cut of that magnitude could boost industrial activity, travel and freight—all bullish for oil demand.
Second, residential demand for electricity and heating fuels is often underappreciated. While data centers grab headlines, household consumption is sticky and seasonal. In some regions, oil-fired generation still underpins power supply, making demand less elastic than many forecasts assume.
Third, OPEC+ has been vague about any output increases beyond September. A move toward tighter supply could send prices higher.
Finally, geopolitical risks may linger longer than expected, with or without a Russia-Ukraine resolution. We could see higher tariffs or other trade frictions with major consumers like India.
A Test of Permian Growth and Refining Resilience
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has climbed 7.7% so far in 2025 following a 9.9% rally from its April 52-week low. Investors cheered the completion of its merger with Hess Co. (NYSE: HES), which adds Guyana's world-class reserves to Chevron's portfolio. Yet the Permian remains the engine of growth.
In the basin, Chevron produces between 800,000 and 850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and continues to improve capital efficiency across its assets. On MarketBeat, the consensus price target for CVX is $164.11, implying about 5% upside. Several analysts have already raised their targets since the Aug. 1 earnings release.
Turning Oil Demand Into LNG and Guyana Cash Flow
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) also hinges its bull case on the Permian. Following its 2024 acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, Exxon is now the region's largest single operator, pumping around 1.6 to 1.8 million boe/d, with plans to reach roughly 2 million boe/d by 2027.
Beyond the Permian, higher oil prices tend to lift LNG contract rates and accelerate returns from Guyana. XOM shares are roughly flat in 2025, down 0.75% year to date. Yet analysts see room for a 17% rise to a consensus target of $125.84, plus a 3.71% dividend yield.
A High-Beta Play on a Long-Cycle Upturn
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) offers a higher-beta entry into the sector. Unlike integrated majors, oilfield services stocks like SLB tend to experience wider swings but reward upside surprises in demand.
SLB is project-driven with multi-year contracts; a sustained pickup in drilling activity could unlock substantial gains. The company supplies the "picks and shovels" that upstream producers need. After a strong 2024, activity has lagged in 2025, and SLB is down 12.8% this year.
MarketBeat's consensus price target on SLB stock is $49.28, implying more than 47% upside.
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