| Ripple Effect — August 11, 2025
August has been a tumultuous month for each of the past 10 years.
Today, one-third of the way through the month, that trend is holding strong. And stocks have now posted their 70th consecutive day without dropping below the 50-day moving average:  Markets are having one of their longest periods of technical strength since the start of 2024.
Last week, rising odds for an interest rate cut in September extended the S&P 500 rally.
Fed chair Jerome Powell remains stalwart. So far, only two members of the Fed board of governors have registered dissent and voted for a cut. One of them, Christopher Waller, tops Trump’s list to replace Powell.
Under Trump, anything can happen…
For now, the August surprise is to the upside for stocks.
~ Addison P.S. While stocks continue to trend higher on a potentially weakening economy (jobs report), there’s a good reason. Even without Fed rate cuts, global M2 money supply — aka cash — is also hitting historic highs. Central banks around the world have been printing money like we’re already in a debt crisis.
That bodes well for assets like bitcoin, which jumped back over $120,000 over the weekend – and gold, which broke $3,500 briefly last week.
Hard assets have more room to run – gold is still nowhere near our price estimate.
Keep an eye out, both gold and bitcoin will likely hold up well in a garden-variety market pullback. In a massive drop, which tends to lead to liquidations across the board, however, all bets are off.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
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