| The dollar firmed Friday but headed for a weekly fall as weakening economic data leads traders to price in more rate cuts, while Fed nominations add to dovish speculation. Here's where key markets stand. USD: Weekly Loss Despite Friday FirmingThe dollar gained 0.21% Friday to 98.19 but remained on track for a weekly loss of around 0.5%. Weakening economic data since last week's disappointing jobs report has led traders to price in more aggressive Fed easing, with an 89% chance now seen for a September rate cut and 58 basis points of cuts by year-end. Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to a vacant Fed seat and Bloomberg reports that Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate for Fed Chair when Powell's term ends in May are adding to dovish expectations. "It loads the FOMC with people who presumably are a little bit more favorable to lower interest rates," notes Shaun Osborne at Scotiabank. "The impression is that the Fed is veering towards cutting interest rates probably a little bit quicker than markets had expected." Bank of America notes that shorting the U.S. dollar remains the highest conviction trade among fund managers, reflecting expectations of "fading U.S. exceptionalism and simmering concerns on Fed independence and U.S. fiscal policy." EUR: Regaining Lost MomentumThe euro fell 0.09% to $1.1655 Friday but continues to gain lost momentum, trading back above the 1.1600 level with expectations for a stronger rally in coming days. Traders watch to see if daily candles close above 1.1700 for bullish confirmation as dollar weakness provides underlying support. GBP: Testing Trendline ResistanceSterling rose 0.06% to $1.3451 Friday, reaching a two-week high of $1.3458 earlier and tracking for a 1.3% weekly rise. The pound tries to hold trendline resistance with expectations of a break as the dollar continues trading lower. Traders wait for price to close above 1.3500 as the next key level. The BoE cut rates Thursday to 4% in a narrow 5-4 vote, showing lack of conviction in its easing bias. The meeting saw the pound rally 0.7% Thursday – its biggest one-day gain in 11 weeks – as the tight vote suggested limited future easing. "The key takeaway is that they did maintain their gradual and careful guidance when it comes to future policy easing," says Michael Brown at Pepperstone. GBPJPY: Tackling 200 AgainThe pound-yen traded back up this week, tackling the 200.00 level once again. This psychological level will act as strong resistance in coming days as the cross benefits from both pound strength and yen policy uncertainty. The dollar strengthened 0.41% to 147.71 yen Friday. Bank of Japan policymakers debated resuming interest rate increases at their July meeting, with one signaling the chance of a hike this year, according to meeting opinions, heightening chances of near-term borrowing cost rises. GOLD: Dovish Dollar Strengthens CommodityGold traded higher this week, closing stronger toward 3400 as the more dovish nature of dollar policy continues to strengthen the commodity. Safe-haven demand remains robust amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. BITCOIN: Risk Appetite ReturnsBitcoin fell 0.70% to $116,429 on Friday but trades back up after previously closing below the $116,000 support level. Traders expect more risk appetite, making the asset a worthy bullish target as institutional adoption continues. Trump signed an executive order Thursday allowing more alternative assets, including cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement accounts, potentially opening trillions in retirement savings to crypto investments. Geopolitical DevelopmentsTraders are watching developments in potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with Bloomberg reporting the U.S. and Russia are aiming to reach a deal that would lock in Moscow's occupation of seized territory. Week Ahead: Inflation Data KeyTuesday's consumer price data for July will be crucial in determining whether tariffs are reigniting inflation pressures. As St. Louis Fed President Musalem noted Friday, the Fed now faces risks to both its inflation and jobs goals, requiring policymakers to balance which threat is more serious. The Fed's challenge is determining appropriate policy amid conflicting signals – weakening employment data suggesting the need for cuts, while potential tariff-driven inflation argues for caution. With short dollar positioning at extremes and dovish Fed expectations building, any signs of economic resilience or inflation acceleration could trigger significant dollar rebounds. From breakout detection to zone alerts to option layering... ⚡ We've built tools for every trading style. Now we're building the tool that makes the others look outdated. It's not just another indicator. It's a complete paradigm shift. See our current lineup: Browse tools → FINDBETTERTRADES Get first access: Reply "INTERESTED" Regard, FindBetterTrades | 
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