| Ripple Effect — September 24, 2025
Late into the dotcom era, companies realized they could create profits without having to actually have cash change hands.
Rather, they could announce a massive deal that would take years to play out. And rather than spread out the costs, it could be booked as revenues in the quarter of the announcement.
Not profits, but revenue all the same. That accounting trend was a hallmark of the boom… and the bust… of tech shares 1998-2000.
Today, we’re seeing the beginnings of that trend in AI – this time at scale.
On Monday, Nvidia shares popped nearly 4% on news that they would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI.
That’s just part of the bizarre trend where large-cap AI names are now announcing deals with each other – and seeing an immediate boost to their company’s valuation – well before any money changes hands.  Today’s major AI players are essentially a closed-loop economy (Source: Kakashii via X) We know Nvidia’s need to sell chips is crucial for keeping its earnings engine going. The “investment” in OpenAI will allow OpenAI to buy Nvidia chips. And Oracle software and services – which in turn increases demand from Nvidia’s chips.
Round and round it goes.
You’re free to draw your conclusions. Just keep mind, in 2000 the jig ended badly for a whole class of “dotcom” stocks.
~ Addison P.S. As the AI loop powers up 401k plans, the real economy is still concerned about inflation, as seen with the strength of commodities.
Gold is up to $3,800 per ounce as of this morning, up over $100 in the past week.
Lithium, left for dead after demand for EVs slowed down, is back with a vengeance as the Trump administration is looking to invest in Lithium America (LAC) – with shares up nearly 70% on the rumor.
Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live!, Portfolio Director Andrew Packer and contributor Shad Marquitz will review the latest developments in the commodity space and determine the best commodity plays through the end of 2025 and into 2026.  If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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