| Good morning, investors! The equity rally rolled on last week as the Federal Reserve delivered its expected quarter-point cut and projected two more cuts by year's end. All three major indexes finished at record highs Friday, with the Nasdaq securing its second straight week of 2%+ gains. INFLATION SPOTLIGHTThe headline event this week is Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists forecast a 2.7% year-over-year rise, up slightly from July’s 2.6%, with core PCE holding steady at 2.9%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that inflation remains above target even as the labor market weakens, underscoring the Fed’s delicate balancing act. This PCE report could tip sentiment on how aggressively the Fed continues its easing cycle. FED SPEAKERSMarkets won’t have to wait until Friday for catalysts. A full lineup of Fed officials, including New York’s John Williams, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, speak Monday. Williams, a key voice in shaping policy, is expected to draw close scrutiny after last week’s scattered dot plot highlighted divisions within the FOMC. ECONOMIC DATA LINEUP- Tuesday (9/23): S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (52 est.), Services PMI (53.9 est.)
- Wednesday (9/24): Census Bureau new-home sales (650,000 expected)
- Thursday (9/25): Final Q2 GDP estimate (3.3% expected), Durable Goods Orders (-0.5% expected), Existing-home sales (3.95M annual rate forecast)
- Friday (9/26): PCE Price Index (headline 2.7% y/y, core 2.9% y/y expected)
EARNINGS TO WATCH- Monday (9/22): Firefly Aerospace, Marti Technologies, American Battery Technology
- Tuesday (9/23): Micron Technology (MU), AutoZone (AZO), AAR Corp. (AIR), Worthington Industries (WOR)
- Wednesday (9/24): KB Home (KBH), Cintas (CTAS), Uranium Energy (UEC), Stitch Fix (SFIX)
- Thursday (9/25): Costco (COST), Accenture (ACN), CarMax (KMX), Jabil (JBL), BlackBerry (BB), TD SYNNEX (SNX)
- Friday (9/26): KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP)
Spotlight Names:- Micron Technology: Riding AI tailwinds with expected EPS growth of +142% and revenue up 44%. Analysts remain bullish, but some warn about cyclical risks after a strong rally.
- KB Home: Facing affordability pressures and trimmed full-year guidance. Analysts remain cautious, noting margin contraction and slower growth.
- Costco: August sales rose 8.7% y/y, but valuation concerns loom with the stock trading at 50x earnings. Strong membership loyalty remains its edge, but bulls and bears are split on upside.
WHAT I’M WATCHING This week is all about inflation and credibility. If PCE surprises hotter, the Fed could face pressure to slow its cutting pace, even as Powell stresses labor market weakness. Micron’s results will test whether the AI boom continues to lift memory markets, while Costco’s earnings will reveal whether U.S. consumers are as resilient as the August sales data suggest. And with Fed officials speaking nearly every day, expect the market narrative to shift quickly. Two trades.One alert fired at lunch. Another closed in profit before dinner. This happens every day with our scanner. Don’t miss the next move. Until next time, FindBetterTrades |
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