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View in browser "Understanding how interest rates and the bond markets work is critical to investing the in the stock market." Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance Editor's Note: Yesterday was electric during our Fed Shockwave Summit. Thousands were in attendance, and they all learned our unique way to profit off down markets. Imagine making gains as high as 157% overnight when the market drops 1%. That's what the "Dark Ticker" strategy does. Click here to discover how it works today. - Ryan Fitzwater, Publisher Dear Reader, After the FOMC's recent 25 basis point cut in interest rates, many people thought all interest rates would fall. Imagine their surprise when the long-term rates actually moved higher. What gives? Well, the truth is… the Fed only directly controls the short end of the curve (overnight rates, fed funds, etc.). While long-term interest rates (like the 10-year or 30-year Treasury) are set by the market based on future expectations. Here's why long-term rates don't always fall when the Fed cuts: Inflation Expectations If markets think Fed cuts will stimulate growth or stoke inflation, investors may demand higher yields on long-term bonds to compensate for the erosion of purchasing power. So, if the Fed cuts into an already hot economy, long rates can even rise. Term Premium Long rates embed a risk premium for holding long bonds (uncertainty about inflation, fiscal deficits, supply of Treasuries). If deficits are large or Treasury supply is heavy, long rates may stay elevated regardless of Fed cuts. Growth Outlook If Fed cuts are seen as too late or a sign of economic trouble, long yields may drop (flight to safety). But if cuts are interpreted as insurance cuts (to keep the economy humming), long rates may not fall—or may rise—because growth is expected to hold up. SPONSORED Something huge happened on June 30 Google just announced a partnership that could trigger an energy market shock, supercharge the AI revolution, and save homeowners tens of thousands of dollars. According to one former Google insider, the technology at the center of this deal “could be even more important than the industrial revolution.” Click here for the full story. Global Demand for Treasuries Foreign central banks, pensions, and investors buy long bonds. If demand weakens (say, due to better yields elsewhere or foreign exchange concerns), long rates resist moving down. Market's View of Fed Credibility There's also been a lot of action in the Fed "bench" this year from allegations of bad faith to conflicts of interest between the White House and the Fed. And, If investors think the Fed is falling behind the curve on inflation, they may keep pushing long rates higher, even as the Fed trims short rates. Here's the yield curve sketch below: notice how the short end drops after the Fed cut, but the long end barely moves. That's because long-term yields depend more on inflation, growth expectations, and risk premiums than on the Fed's immediate action. Understanding how interest rates and the bond markets work is critical to investing the in the stock market. It's part of our daily analysis in The War Room. YOUR ACTION PLAN Action Plan: While many traders might panic when the market surprises them, we actually have a way to create overnight gains as high as 157% when the market drops. Yesterday my colleague Bryan Bottarelli revealed this powerful strategy during the Fed Shockwave Summit. It has an 85% win rate, with a 40% average return. Click here to discover how the "Dark Ticker" trade works today. INSIGHTS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED Why Selling Your Biggest Winner Makes Sense This Tech Group Is More Than Just a Cool Name Why IJR Beats the Russell 2000 (Rate Cut Play) The Fed Cut Rally Fooled Everyone... But the REAL Shockwave Is About to Hit SPONSORED See How to Get a Bonus Year of The Oxford Club's #1 Research Service We just finished crunching the numbers. And wow... THIS was our #1 VIP research service... delivering SIXTEEN triple-digit winners in 2024. It CRUSHED the S&P 500 by 4-to-1! Click here to see how to get a bonus year of this market-trouncing research service. Monument Traders Alliance, LLC You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Trade of the Day. To unsubscribe from Trade of the Day, click here. Questions? Check out our FAQs. Trying to reach us? Contact us here. Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. 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