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AST SpaceMobile's Big Win: Shares Soar on New Deal With Verizon
Written by Leo Miller. Published 10/11/2025.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile has been one of the best-performing stocks of 2025, with its latest deal with Verizon adding fuel to its rally.
- The deal changes the company's relationship with Verizon in a highly positive way.
- Still, with few concrete details, investors should stay aware of the significant valuation concerns surrounding ASTS.
When it comes to stocks that have excited and rewarded investors in 2025, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is clearly near the top of the list. Through the Oct. 8 close, shares were up approximately 311% — an extraordinary run.
Investors may feel more confident after the firm's latest deal with a top telecom company. On Oct. 8, the company announced a deal with Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ). Under the agreement, AST will "provide direct-to-cellular AST SpaceMobile service when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026." The announcement pushed ASTS shares up roughly 16% over two days. Below, we break down what the deal means for ASTS stock and put its valuation into perspective.
Verizon Moves From ASTS Financier to Customer
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Click here to stream The Final Displacement for freeStarting in 2026, Verizon will begin offering a service that lets customers connect to AST SpaceMobile's low-Earth orbit satellites, enabling cellular connectivity in very remote areas of the United States. The deal validates AST's business model and represents a meaningful step toward commercial sales. It builds on the firm's 2024 agreement with Verizon, which helped fund exploration of the "definitive commercial agreement" the two are now implementing.
This commercial agreement creates a clearer path for AST to generate significant and potentially recurring revenue. It also complements similar partnerships with telecom giants AT&T (NYSE: T) and Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD). Through these large relationships, the company has established itself as a leader in its niche and is capitalizing on the telecom industry's competitive push to expand coverage. Still, investors lack detail on the financial terms of these deals, which makes it difficult to estimate how much revenue AST will secure and at what cost.
ASTS's Valuation Chasm: Current Results vs. Forward Estimates
Investors should note the massive divergence between AST SpaceMobile's current results and forward expectations. Over the last 12 months (LTM), AST generated just $4.9 million in revenue, yet the stock trades at a market capitalization of about $31.4 billion. Among U.S. stocks with $10 million or less in LTM revenue, ASTS has the highest market cap. The next-highest company in this group, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), has a market cap of $14.5 billion, underscoring how rich AST's backward-looking valuation is—even among speculative names.
Analysts' revenue forecasts help justify the valuation on a forward basis. In 2027 and 2028, analysts expect AST to generate $830 million and $2.54 billion in revenue, respectively — implying forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of roughly 38x and 12x for those years. That profile looks more reasonable when compared with other high-flying names: analysts expect Rigetti and Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) to produce about $40 million and $144 million in 2027 revenue, which translates into forward P/S ratios near 374x and 100x.
Even so, among U.S. telecom stocks with 2027 revenue projections, ASTS's forward P/S remains the highest; the average among that group is roughly 4x.
ASTS: Analyst Forecasts Signal Nearly 50% Downside in Shares
These projections are just estimates, and actual results could be materially better or worse. As a baseline, analysts' forecasts imply revenue rising from $4.9 million to $830 million in about three and a half years — a pace that would require many things to go right.
Despite those optimistic longer-term projections, analysts view ASTS as overvalued near term. The MarketBeat consensus price target sits just above $45, implying roughly 48% downside versus the Oct. 9 closing price. Barclays recently raised its target from $37 to $60 — the most bullish forecast MarketBeat has tracked in 2025 — but it still implies about 39% downside.
MarketBeat has not yet tracked analysts updating their targets since the Oct. 8 deal; it's possible revisions will come and shift the overall picture of sentiment around ASTS.
Ultimately, the bearish indicators do not preclude further upside in the stock. However, investors should recognize the substantial risks involved and weigh them carefully against the potential rewards.
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