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Qualcomm: What Last Friday's Drop Says About Its Q4 Prospects
Written by Sam Quirke. Published 10/16/2025.
Key Points
- On Friday, Oct. 10, Qualcomm's shares declined over 7%, marking their largest drop in several months.
- A quick rebound has steadied nerves but highlighted fragile momentum.
- Q4 now hinges on investor confidence, earnings, and AI execution.
Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) suffered one of its worst sessions of 2025 last Friday, tumbling more than 7% to close at the lows of the day. The sell-off hit the entire semiconductor sector as concerns about a fresh trade spat with China and a fragile-looking AI bubble sent investors fleeing. However, Qualcomm's decline stood out. The company's recent rally, which at one point had been outpacing NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), suddenly looked a lot weaker.
Since the start of the week, shares have rebounded roughly 5%, climbing back above $160. The quick recovery is encouraging, but the episode was a reminder of how fragile confidence still is. For a stock that has struggled for years to win investor trust and still trades near 2021 levels, the road to lasting Q4 gains just got steeper. Let's take a closer look at why.
Friday's Sell-Off Exposed Lingering Doubts
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Click here now to see all eight AI power playsPerhaps the most worrying aspect of the drop was that no single catalyst explained it. Instead, it was a mix of stretched sentiment, sector-wide weakness and renewed headline risk. Qualcomm had rallied about 40% since April on optimism around its steps toward diversification, but it was always vulnerable if — or when — the market turned risk-off on tech stocks. Fresh reports of an antitrust probe in China and ongoing patent disputes added to the anxiety.
Together, these factors reignited a long-standing concern: investors still view Qualcomm as a cyclical chipmaker, not a pure AI winner like NVIDIA or Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD). When sentiment is strong it lags those peers, and when it fades it tends to suffer even more. Friday's sell-off showed that the market's conviction in Qualcomm's prospects remains thin and that traders won't be slow to lock in profits going forward.
The Quick Rebound Points to Support
That said, there are signs the damage may be limited. Qualcomm's two-day rebound this week has already recaptured most of Friday's losses, suggesting buyers are happy to get involved around the $155–$160 level. That price zone has been a key area of support since summer and appears to be holding again.
The technical picture is also healthier than the headlines might suggest. The stock's Relative Strength Index has cooled from overbought levels in September to a more neutral reading near 50, though the MACD has recently moved into a bearish configuration.
Ideally, this reset will be a healthy pause within Qualcomm's broader rally, but the stock can't afford many more down days like last week.
Q4 Will Be Defined by Earnings
The next major test arrives in early November, when the company reports results. Qualcomm has built a solid track record of beating analyst expectations, which has helped outweigh negative sentiment in the past. Another strong report would go a long way toward restoring momentum.
Investors will be watching three areas closely: first, whether growth in AI-enabled devices, automotive systems and IoT can offset slower smartphone demand; second, updates on the recent acquisition of Arduino, which strengthens its position in robotics and embedded hardware; and third, any reassurance about China's regulatory scrutiny, a recurring source of uncertainty.
Analysts expect modest revenue growth and stable margins, but with sentiment fragile, Qualcomm will need clear evidence of durable progress. The earnings report could determine whether the rebound extends into year-end or stalls below resistance.
Valuation Still Offers a Safety Net
At roughly 16x earnings, Qualcomm trades at a significant discount to larger peers such as NVIDIA and AMD. That provides investors, at least on paper, with a measure of downside protection if volatility persists. The company's strong balance sheet and steady cash flows, along with its 2.2% dividend yield, make it relatively appealing in a market increasingly worried about a bubble.
But Friday's plunge was a reminder that a cheap stock isn't immune to panic. If anything, it confirmed that when macro fear spreads, Qualcomm remains an easy target. To shift that perception, management must show that its diversification efforts are gaining traction and that the company can compete with the biggest players.
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