Dollar Gains as Russian Sanctions Boost OilOctober 23, 2025 DOLLAR INDEX STEADYThe U.S. dollar index was last up 0.01% at 98.94, drifting higher against most peers as traders awaited Friday's delayed consumer inflation data. The CPI release is proceeding despite the government shutdown to assist the Social Security Administration with its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026. EURUSD: LOWER ALL WEEK TO 1.1580The euro traded lower all through the week, making its way into the 1.15800 level. Price could push back into 1.1700, but only if it's able to rally above this low momentum level. The euro was up just 0.06% at $1.162, showing weak recovery attempts. The single currency faces headwinds from economic concerns and dollar strength driven by geopolitical developments, particularly new Russian sanctions affecting oil markets. GBPUSD: LOWER TO 1.3300 TARGETThe pound traded lower all through the week, reaching the 1.33000 level. Expectations suggest the drop could trade into the 1.32800 sentimental zone before any short-term rally to the upside is expected. Sterling was down slightly at $1.333 after bouncing back from Wednesday's fall triggered by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. This softer CPI has caused markets to increase bets on another Bank of England rate cut this year, weighing on the pound. GBPJPY: MOMENTUM CONTINUES ABOVE 200The POUND-YEN continues its momentum above the 200.00 level, trading to new heights around 204. With short expectations that the rally would continue, traders are geared up for more bullish bias. The yen's weakness from domestic factors and higher oil prices is providing tailwinds for this cross. Japan's new leadership under fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi continues pressuring the yen toward last week's seven-month low of 153.29 per dollar. GOLD: FIRST BEARISH MOVE, THEN RECOVERYGold had its first bearish move since starting its rally, trading down into $4,000 before making another pullback to the upside. Buyers expect this was a take-profit move and that bullish sentiment is still very much alive. The temporary dip likely represents healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal, as the fundamental drivers supporting gold – geopolitical tensions, government dysfunction, and monetary policy uncertainty – remain firmly in place. BITCOIN: MIXED BIAS BELOW $110KBitcoin trades in a mixed bias as it struggles to get above $110K but continuously weakens. The possibility of a bull move above this level remains to be seen, while bearish bias is very much intact. A move below $105K could trigger another sell momentum. The cryptocurrency faces critical support tests that will determine whether its historic rally can resume or requires deeper correction before the next leg higher. RUSSIAN SANCTIONS SHAKE MARKETSNew U.S. sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war sent oil prices surging nearly 5% on Thursday, following British sanctions on the same companies last week. The U.S. Treasury Department said it was prepared to take further action as it called on Moscow to agree immediately to a ceasefire. Multiple trade sources told Reuters that Chinese state oil majors had suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil from these companies, providing further price support. INFLATION DATA TAKES DIFFERENT SIGNIFICANCE"The data will be significant for slightly different reasons to normal. Clearly the Fed has moved on from CPI, but we can still take that data and make some assumptions about consumer spending and growth," said Nick Rees, head of macro analysis at Monex Europe. Although the Fed's policy focus has shifted from inflation to labor markets, Friday's numbers will be closely watched for insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum amid the ongoing government shutdown. LOOKING AHEAD TO CPIFriday's inflation data release will be crucial despite the Fed's shifted focus. Can the euro sustain any recovery toward 1.1700, or will dollar strength keep it pinned near 1.1580? Will sterling break below 1.3280 sentiment zone before finding support? The GBPJPY's continued strength above 200 to 204 suggests the yen's troubles are far from over, particularly with oil prices surging on sanctions and political concerns persisting in Tokyo. Gold's pullback to $4,000 and recovery suggests buyers remain eager to accumulate on dips, viewing any weakness as opportunity rather than reversal. The $5,000 target remains in focus as global uncertainties show no signs of abating. Bitcoin's struggle below $110K represents a critical juncture. A break below $105K could trigger significant selling pressure, while a sustained move above $110K could reignite bullish momentum toward previous highs. The combination of Russian sanctions, oil price spikes, government dysfunction, and monetary policy uncertainty ensures volatility will remain elevated across all asset classes in the coming sessions. NEW SYSTEM. DROPPING SOON. ONE GLANCE. INFINITE POSSIBILITIES. THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING. (okay, maybe we're being dramatic, but our beta testers aren't lying when they say this is the tool they've been waiting for) Reply “Interested” if you want in. Kind regards, TradingStrategyGuides | 
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