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Hello TheoTrader,
Wednesday’s session with Jeff Bierman and Gianni Di Poce was a sight to behold.
It was like watching our own versions of Nuriel Rubini and Tom Lee go at it.
Much to my dismay, no fights broke out.
Still, comparing these two wildly different traders reinforces one of my strongest beliefs:
There are many ways to trade successfully.
Jeff loves to short so much, I fear the SEC may show up at his door one day. Good luck to those agents.
Gianni holds stocks on companies that may never have generated much revenue, let alone positive cash flow.
And yet, both are banking, each in their own unique way.
So, the question isn’t whether you CAN be a successful trader.
It’s what kind of trader you want to be?
Jordan Schneir
Editorial Director, TheoTRADE
Don Kaufman: The 2% Paradox
In 20+ years of trading, I've never seen volatility futures invert this close to market peaks.
Here's why that should terrify you.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,616 yesterday. All-time high? 6,764.
We're 2% off all-time highs with volatility futures in full backwardation.
It's literally never happened before.
When volatility futures invert, the market is saying the next 30 days are more dangerous than the next 60 days.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Don’s article.
Gianni Di Poce: Bears Are Flat Out Wrong
People panic when they don't have a plan.
That's probably why I'm not worried.
The market's less than 2% off all-time highs, yet everyone's acting like the sky is falling. Trade war fears. Banking crisis 2.0. The AI bubble supposedly bursting (again).
We heard the exact same thing in August.
If that were true, then how is it possible that Trinity Traders just locked in a massive 39% gain in BitDeer Group (BTDR) in less than two weeks?
Or better yet, why did this stock hold onto most of its gains while the rest of the market fell apart?
Maybe it’s because they’re just flat out wrong.
Because the real money flows tell a completely different story than the panic headlines.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Gianni’s article.
Jeff Bierman: The Court Date and the Drawdown
I had to argue a speeding ticket in court earlier this week.
Didn't know if I'd win. Depended on the judge. Some days you get someone who listens to logic. Some days you get someone who already made up their mind.
Just like the market.
You do everything right. You follow the rules. You time your entries. You set your stops.
And sometimes you still lose because forces beyond your control decide the outcome.
That's what I've been thinking about all week.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Jeff’s article.
Brandon Chapman: When Smart Money Sees a Credit Crisis Coming
The high yield bond market just flashed a warning signal most traders will miss until it's too late.
On October 16th, someone placed a 100,000 contract bet on HYG puts expiring November 21st.
They paid the ask. No negotiating. No waiting for a better price. They wanted in immediately.
The same day, gold traders made an even bolder move. They rolled existing calls into higher strikes and bought aggressive verticals targeting $415 within two weeks.
These weren't separate bets. They were coordinated positioning for a credit crisis.
The kind of trades that appear days or weeks before markets crack.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Brandon’s article.
Blake Young: A Trader's Lesson from The Nightmare Before Christmas
I've watched The Nightmare Before Christmas at least twice every year since 1993.
My house fills with the merchandise every October.
I named my dog after Jack Skellington.
This level of devotion to a claymation film might seem odd for a trader, but this movie has taught me more about patience and sustainable success than most market analysis ever could.
Tim Burton's Halloween-Christmas mashup offers two essential trading lessons hiding beneath its gothic aesthetic and catchy musical numbers.
The first emerges from how the film was made.
The second comes from the story itself.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Blake’s article.
Tony Rago: The Cost of Impatience
This week tested me.
Not because the market was impossible to trade—it wasn't. But because the conditions demanded something most traders struggle with: patience.
Let me show you what I mean.
Monday morning, I had my eye on a long at 77 on the NQ. Clean level. Setup forming. Order ready.
The market touched 66 instead and ran 40 handles.
Here's what matters: I didn't chase it. The setup I wanted didn't materialize, so I canceled the order and waited for the next one.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Tony’s article.
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