| Good morning, investors! Markets bounced back last week with all three major indexes rising over 1.5%, though volatility remained elevated—the VIX closed above 20 for four consecutive days, its most sustained stretch since September. Strong bank earnings and dovish Fed commentary overshadowed trade tensions and loan quality concerns, while positive outlooks from ASML and TSMC kept the AI trade thriving. This week brings one of the season's busiest earnings lineups with roughly 80 S&P 500 companies reporting, plus the long-awaited CPI release on Friday. Here's what you need to know: MAGNIFICENT SEVEN: TESLA HEADLINESWednesday's Tesla (TSLA) earnings after the close represents the week's marquee event. Analysts forecast a challenging quarter: 23% profit decline despite 5% revenue growth, reflecting margin compression pressures. However, Q3 deliveries hit a record 497,100 vehicles (up 7% year-over-year), beating estimates as buyers rushed to capture the expiring $7,500 EV tax credit. Tesla recently introduced "standard" Model Y and Model 3 trims at $39,990 and $36,990 respectively, targeting price-conscious buyers. Wedbush's Dan Ives maintains his bullish stance, projecting Tesla's market cap could reach $2 trillion by early 2026 and $3 trillion by year-end 2026. The key debate: whether Tesla's AI and autonomous driving initiatives justify its premium valuation amid core automotive margin pressure. Management commentary about FSD progress, robotaxi timeline, and energy segment growth will be critical. STREAMING WARS: NETFLIX REPORTSTuesday's Netflix (NFLX) report after the close expects impressive results: 28% profit growth on 17% revenue growth. The stock has surged 69% over the past year and 33% year-to-date, driven by strong subscriber momentum and growing ad-tier revenues. Seaport recently upgraded to Buy with a $1,385 price target, citing ad monetization momentum—expecting ad revenue to double to $3.1 billion this year and expand at 48% CAGR through 2030. The ad-supported tier and global content expansion remain key growth drivers despite a recent "Cancel Netflix" campaign controversy. CONSUMER GIANTS PARADEMajor consumer companies provide spending insights: Tuesday: Coca-Cola (KO), 3M (MMM), Philip Morris (PM) Friday: Procter & Gamble (PG) Coca-Cola reports before Tuesday's open following rival PepsiCo's upbeat results. Deutsche Bank added KO to its "fresh money" Q4 list, citing proactive strategy, pricing power, and global execution. The beverage giant has beaten EPS and revenue in 8 straight quarters. P&G closes the week Friday morning facing questions about pricing power sustainability, market saturation in core brands, and whether productivity gains can offset tariff pressures. AUTOMOTIVE AND AEROSPACETuesday: General Motors (GM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX, Northrop Grumman (NOC), GE Aerospace (GE) Thursday: Ford (F), American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alaska Air (ALK) GM and Ford will reveal how traditional automakers are navigating the EV transition and managing profitability amid competitive pressures. Defense contractors provide insights into government spending priorities, while airlines offer holiday travel demand outlooks heading into peak season. Tuesday: Texas Instruments (TXN), Netflix (NFLX) Wednesday: AT&T (T), IBM, Lam Research (LRCX), SAP Thursday: Intel (INTC), T-Mobile (TMUS) Intel's Thursday report draws particular interest after an 84% year-to-date surge. The company's aggressive AI push and partnerships with Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. government have driven the rally, but analysts debate whether fundamentals justify current valuations. The chipmaker received $18 billion in new capital and is repositioning as a foundry player. T-Mobile and AT&T will reveal wireless subscriber trends and 5G monetization progress. CPI FINALLY ARRIVESFriday brings the delayed Consumer Price Index for September after the government shutdown forced a reschedule. Economists forecast: - Headline CPI: +3.1% year-over-year (up from August's +2.9%)
- Core CPI: +3.1% year-over-year (matching August)
Despite the shutdown approaching 20 days, some BLS employees were recalled specifically to collect this data so the Social Security Administration could set its annual cost-of-living adjustment. The report represents the only major economic data point in an otherwise information-barren week. Friday also features S&P Global PMI data: - Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 expected (vs. 52.0 in September)
- Services PMI: 53.5 forecast (vs. 54.2 previously)
FINANCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL MIXMonday: Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Cleveland-Cliffs, AGNC Investment Tuesday: Capital One, Chubb, Nasdaq, Intuitive Surgical, Halliburton Wednesday: CME Group, Crown Castle, Kinder Morgan, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Las Vegas Sands, United Rentals Thursday: Blackstone, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Valero Energy, Digital Realty Trust, Tractor Supply, Baker Hughes, Newmont Friday: General Dynamics, Illinois Tool Works, HCA Healthcare This diverse lineup provides comprehensive sectoral coverage—from mortgage REITs and steel producers to casinos, railroads, and healthcare facilities. WHAT I'M WATCHINGTesla's Wednesday report could be the most volatile moment of the week. With the stock trading on future AI and autonomous potential rather than current automotive economics, any disappointment in FSD progress or robotaxi timeline could trigger significant selling. Conversely, bullish guidance on AI initiatives might overshadow margin pressures. Netflix faces its own narrative test. The ad-supported tier's success is crucial for justifying current valuations. Seaport's projection of 48% ad revenue CAGR through 2030 represents enormous growth expectations that management must validate with concrete subscriber and pricing data. Friday's CPI data carries extra weight given the data desert created by the shutdown. A 3.1% reading would represent reacceleration from August's 2.9%, potentially complicating the Fed's easing path. However, Powell's recent emphasis on labor market downside risks suggests inflation would need to surprise significantly higher to alter policy trajectory. Intel's report will test whether policy support and partnerships can translate into financial performance. The $18 billion capital infusion and Nvidia partnership provide runway, but investors need evidence of actual revenue growth and margin improvement, not just strategic positioning. I'm watching automotive earnings closely for EV transition insights. Tesla's delivery strength came partly from tax credit expiration urgency—GM and Ford's results will show whether traditional manufacturers are gaining ground or falling further behind in electrification. The VIX remaining elevated above 20 suggests persistent uncertainty despite last week's gains. With trade tensions ongoing, shutdown continuing, and earnings concentration high, volatility could spike on any major earnings disappointments or geopolitical developments. Behind every green or red candle is data, emotion, and chaos. Trend Rider turns that chaos into clarity — instantly. Stocks, crypto, or forex — one glance and you know the move. ➤ [See how it works] Until next time, FindBetterTrades P.S. With Tesla down 23% on profits but up 7% on deliveries, which matters more—current financial performance or future AI potential? Hit reply with whether you're buying Tesla's autonomous vision or waiting for automotive profitability to improve! | 
Post a Comment
Post a Comment