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Dear Fellow Traveler: Greetings from “End of the Earth Farm…” the name of my new property… My former little plot was the Florida Republic… and the purpose of Postcards was to write to everyone from the edge of a cococut tree… Out here in the sticks of Maryland, it feels so far away from the insanity. After the summer I had… I am glad to enjoy the peace… As I sit here on a temperate day with the dogs on the back porch, the only thing that I can do… Is curse. I had my yard cleaned up on Wednesday from all the leaves. And - here we are a day later, as if someone had shaken every branch and dumped every leaf in the yard. Or perhaps, my neighbors bagged up their leaves and then came over in the middle of the night and shot them out of a cannon into my yard… Is there a conspiracy? Me thinks it’s possible… I’m setting up cameras… or am I… hmm… What else do I think? Thing I Think: Everyone Is Now an Expert on the AI BubbleSo… what is everyone out there in civilization an expert in now? Everywhere I’ve looked this week… I’ve seen a large number of people suggesting that we’re now in an AI Bubble… What gave that away? Is it the valuations? Is it the fact that our entire economy seems to be relying on AI Infrastructure spending the same way that China relied on a ghost housing boom a decade ago? The quotes have been incredible…
But maybe more concerning… Jerome Powell DOESN’T think we’re in a bubble… Powell said today’s AI build-out “isn’t a bubble,” noting that unlike dot-com, many firms “actually have earnings.” Because all of his predecessors have been so good at identifying and non-identifying bubbles in the past… I’ll talk about this more on Sunday… But I ask you… Is AI the bubble? Or is it the U.S the bubble? Because the U.S. is 72% of the Global MSCI Index compared to about 33% just a little over a decade ago… Oh… spooky question… Thing I Think: The Best Halloween Song Ever… Is…You’re expecting a hot take, aren’t you? Something controversial… Well, I’ll start here… I’ve spent the week just telling my daughter (as a joke) that the Monster Mash… is in fact… NOT a graveyard smash… She continues to argue that the lyrics say that it is a “Graveyard Smash…” But I’ve gone contrarian here… The rest of the Halloween playlist is just straight chalk from here… Your Top 5 Halloween Songs… It is Thriller… And it will always be Thriller… Thing I Think: Here Comes the Money Printer…And there it is… Michael Howell, today, over at Capital Wars, issued the warning… A form of easing will come… They’re just going to call it something else… Howell’s core point… The Fed finally acknowledges markets need continuous liquidity injections. Despite missing inflation targets, they’re ending QT, restarting “Not-QE” bond purchases ($250B annually), and releasing $150-200B from Treasury’s bloated account. However, this $400B injection barely meets the minimum needed to normalize repo spreads. The global liquidity cycle is still set to peak - this slows the decline. It’s a monetary policy situation suited for range-bound markets, not bull runs. Get ready to get frustrated with lots of sideways movement and a grind in Q4… The market makers will clean up on one-directional bets… Everyone else? Maybe it’s time to look at the defensive stocks on sale… We’ll check back… Final… Thing I Think: I Like To Freely Think… and TalkThere are five rights in the First Amendment, but most Americans can name only one… Freedom of Speech. And, that’s fine, because that’s the one that matters to me universally… I will defend some terrible opinions in the name of this right. So, it just boggled my mind that a former U.S. President called for government-sponsored oversight on “facts” after years of that not being popular… at all… with the vast majority of Americans… Here’s Barack Obama:
[Reader drops head in hands, head slips through hands, head slams into desk, head and body fall to the floor. The body wakes up 20 minutes later, thinking it was all a dream. The head re-reads that paragraph. Sadness overwhelms the reader again…] Look man… I’m gonna have a different take than all the people who are upset about this… This needs to be said… The reality is that the First Amendment allows us to come up with the absolute dumbest arguments and interpretations of reality possible. The First Amendment allows any American to be both the town crier and the village idiot… Remember that… And stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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