“We Can’t Print Rocks” Is Our New National Security StrategyIt was going to arrive... and finally has. We were giving people paper money for their valuable minerals (the things you can't print). They've caught on.
Dear Fellow Traveler: A few weeks ago, I explained how corporate insider buying, rare earth metal bottlenecks, and U.S. national security have fueled incredible gains for anyone paying attention. About a dozen or so executives at U.S. Altimony (UAMY) bought loads of shares under $1.00 last year. The company is central to obtaining the metals needed for munitions… and owns the U.S. bottleneck. Then, the CEO bought a half-million in shares at $6.50 a few months back. The stock topped out at around $19.50 this month. It’s happened with a few names like USA Rare Earth (USAR) as well… The U.S. government is taking a “Hedge of Tomorrow” approach to national security. It’s clear as day… Since March 2024, I’ve been explaining that we’re in the middle of a massive monetary paradigm shift fueled by money printing and a breakdown in East-West relations. The rise of gold and silver was the appetizer. Rare earth metals are now experiencing what one reporter called a “crypto” moment… It’s a good comparison of their recent meteoric price surge, except for one thing. We need these rare metals for advanced weapons, healthcare systems, and basic communication devices. CT Machines don’t run on Bitcoin… “Rare Earth” Will Be the New “AI” Conference Call TermFor years, we watched as companies with little insight or access to AI as part of their strategy just randomly talk about AI on their conference calls. It would benefit their shares because the forward guidance would look bullish, as the companies were looking to adopt AI… Well, expect the same on the rare earth front from anyone with materials access and/or capital. Maybe Alphabet starts talking about asteroid mining… but the real story will be what companies can do to integrate supplies into their system veritically (as Tesla has built its own lithium refineries). Or companies can start looking for shovels and head into the Wyoming mountains. Or… they just say they’re gonna start looking… Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) jumped 20% in one day because it announced they’re exploring rare earth mining. They did not find anything, they did not produce anything, but they said they were looking for rare earths. How? With binoculars? Meanwhile, President Trump and Australia’s PM just signed an $8.5 billion minerals deal to break China’s stranglehold on critical materials. Rare earth stocks are exploding across the board… some up 30% overnight. This is exactly what I’ve been talking about with the “Hedge of Tomorrow” strategy and why you need to own things that can’t be printed. The Sovereign Strategy Playing Out in Real TimeThe U.S.-Australia deal isn’t just trade policy. It’s economic warfare disguised as cooperation. China controls 90% of rare earth processing and just weaponized those exports against us. Our response? Throw billions at anyone willing to dig holes in friendly territory. This validates everything about the sovereign strategy I’ve been pushing. When push comes to shove between superpowers, the countries that control physical materials have important leverage over countries that control financial systems. You can’t 3D print neodymium. You can’t “quantitatively ease” your way to more gallium (although it appears we’ve been trying). You can’t download germanium from the internet. These materials exist in specific places, require years to extract and process, and are absolutely essential for everything from EV motors to missile guidance systems. Corporate Nationalism Meets Market RealityCleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves said, “American manufacturing shouldn’t rely on China or any foreign nation for essential minerals.” He’s positioning his company as an instrument of American technological sovereignty, and the market is rewarding that narrative with a 20% pop. That’s another thing, too. It’s good to be on the side of the mercantilist mindset in this environment. Maybe America buys a stake in the company, too, further blurring the lines between public and private ownership. That said… this is the new playbook. Companies that align themselves with national security priorities get government support, preferential financing, and investor enthusiasm. The Timeline ProblemEven with massive government investment, most of these facilities won’t be operational until 2028. Goldman Sachs confirmed what we already knew. You can’t just flip a switch and create rare earth supply chains. But markets don’t care about operational timelines when national security is at stake. The promise of supply chain independence is enough to move billions in market cap, even if the actual production is years away. This rare earth boom perfectly illustrates why physical assets matter in a multipolar world. When currencies become weapons and financial systems fragment, whoever controls the underlying materials controls the real power. The Pentagon’s billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree isn’t about efficiency - it’s about survival. When your advanced weapons depend on materials controlled by your primary geopolitical rival, you either find alternatives or lose wars. MP Materials, USA Rare Earths, and now Cleveland-Cliffs represent more than just mining companies. They’re strategic assets in a resource competition that will define the next century. Every EV battery, wind turbine, smartphone, and missile system requires these materials. As the world splits into competing blocs, controlling rare earth supply chains becomes as important as controlling oil was in the 20th century. The companies positioning themselves as solutions to Chinese dependency aren’t just making business bets - they’re making geopolitical bets that governments will support with unlimited resources. So…, they have a larger stake in the stuff that can’t be printed, processed, or downloaded… rare earths, lithium, uranium, and copper… the materials that make modern civilization possible. When great powers compete, they compete over resources, not spreadsheets. The sovereign strategy isn’t just about gold anymore. It’s about any physical asset that becomes strategically essential when the global system fractures. Cleveland-Cliffs's 20% jump on exploration plans shows how desperately the market wants exposure to anything that reduces Chinese dependency. That premium will only grow as resource competition intensifies. Let’s get to the market update… Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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