| The dollar headed for a weekly loss against safe havens as trade tensions, regional bank concerns, and the ongoing government shutdown create market uncertainty. Here's where key assets stand. USD: Flying with Limited VisibilityThe dollar index headed for a 0.43% weekly slide despite being up 0.17% on Friday to 98.43. The 17-day government shutdown has choked off key macroeconomic data releases, leaving investors with less certainty than usual about the economy. "We are flying with limited visibility and the Fed also feels like that," notes Amo Sahota at Klarity FX. "And then we had the trade tension that escalated although Trump did try to calm things down... I believe this is all game theory and negotiating tactics." Trump said his proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods "would not be sustainable" but blamed Beijing for the latest trade talk impasse. He confirmed he'll meet with Xi Jinping in two weeks in South Korea to ease tensions. "There's a bit of safe-haven selling of the dollar," says Steve Englander at Standard Chartered. "The news on China, which has been partly but not fully walked back, and the news on regional banks and credit more broadly are sort of hurting the dollar." Fed Governor Waller said he's on board for another rate cut later this month due to mixed job market readings. EUR: Biggest Weekly Gain in Nine WeeksThe euro fell 0.17% to $1.16678 Friday but remained on course for its biggest weekly gain against the dollar in nine weeks. The EURO traded higher last week after dollar weakness, surging up into the 1.1700 level. Price made a rejection from this level, with traders expecting the selling pressure to continue. This resistance zone could provide opportunities for bears if dollar strength returns. GBP: Testing 1.3450 ResistanceSterling fell 0.02% to $1.3433 Friday but was heading for a weekly gain. The POUND also traded higher, making its way into the 1.3450 level. Although rejection seems forthcoming, there's a likely chance price could surge well into the 1.3500 zone if momentum continues. The pound's resilience reflects both dollar weakness and relatively stable UK fundamentals despite ongoing fiscal concerns. GBPJPY: Struggling Above 205The POUND-YEN still struggles to trade anywhere above the 205.00 zone, making it difficult for buyers to move higher. There's a chance sellers could step in once again next week if we don't see a breakout above this stubborn resistance. This technical impasse reflects the cross-currents affecting both currencies. The dollar was flat at 150.49 against the yen, on track to notch a weekly loss. The yen has been defensive since fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi was elected to head Japan's ruling LDP, but a vote to install her as prime minister was delayed after a coalition split. Japan's lower house will hold a parliamentary vote to select the next prime minister on October 21, adding to political uncertainty. BOJ Governor Ueda said Thursday the central bank remains ready to increase rates if growth and price forecasts materialize, providing some yen support. GOLD: Short-Term Sell ExpectedGold traded lower to end the week after trading well above the $4,350 level. Price could be aiming for a short-term sell before another rally begins as the precious metal consolidates recent gains. Despite the pullback, gold remains well-supported by ongoing uncertainty around trade, Fed policy, and government dysfunction. BITCOIN: China Tariff Frenzy AftermathBitcoin traded lower last week as diminished rally expectations induced a huge selloff following the China tariff frenzy. Price now trades around the $106,000 level with mixed bias on whether there'll be a bounce back. The cryptocurrency's sensitivity to trade tensions highlights its continued correlation with risk sentiment despite growing institutional adoption. Week Ahead: Trump-Xi Meeting FocusAll eyes turn to the Trump-Xi meeting in two weeks in South Korea. This high-stakes summit could either ease trade tensions or escalate them further, with significant implications for currency markets. The ongoing government shutdown means continued data blackout, forcing markets to rely on Fed communications and trade headlines for direction. Can the dollar stabilize, or will safe-haven flows continue pressuring the greenback lower? Weekend Upgrade: Add OCP Performance Stop waiting for tools in development. OCP Indicator is performing right now and is ready for immediate use. Weekend timing is perfect for adding proven performance. Upgrade your weekend. Upgrade your trading. [Upgrade to OCP] Weekend setup. Proven performance. Ready Monday. Kind Regards, FindBetterTrades |
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