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For Your Education and Enjoyment AST SpaceMobile's Big Win: Shares Soar on New Deal With VerizonWritten by Leo Miller. Published 10/11/2025. 
Key Points - AST SpaceMobile has been one of the best-performing stocks of 2025, with its latest deal with Verizon adding fuel to its rally.
- The deal changes the company's relationship with Verizon in a highly positive way.
- Still, with few concrete details, investors should stay aware of the significant valuation concerns surrounding ASTS.
Among the stocks that have rewarded investors in 2025, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) stands out. Through the Oct. 8 close, shares were up roughly 311% — an extraordinary run. Investor confidence likely rose further after the company announced a new agreement with a major telecom. On Oct. 8, AST disclosed via a press release that it reached a deal with Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ). Under the agreement, AST will "provide direct-to-cellular AST SpaceMobile service when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026." The announcement pushed ASTS shares up about 16% over two trading days. Below, we explain what the deal could mean for ASTS stock and examine its valuation. Verizon Moves From ASTS Financier to Customer For the past few months, traders in my free Telegram channel have been getting alerts from a powerful new market scanner that's been uncovering some of the most active opportunities each day. Now, instead of sending occasional picks, I'm giving full access to the tool itself — completely free — along with a look at three trade setups targeting big near-term moves and why top Wall Street players are piling in fast. Go here now to get free access to the new trading scanner Beginning in 2026, Verizon customers will be able to connect to AST SpaceMobile's low-Earth-orbit satellites, providing cellular service in extremely remote parts of the United States. The commercial agreement validates AST's business model and represents a concrete step toward generating revenue. It builds on a 2024 arrangement with Verizon that helped fund development and explore the "definitive commercial agreement" the two companies are now implementing. This contract creates a clearer path for AST to generate significant, potentially recurring revenue in the coming years. It also complements similar partnerships AST has announced with telecom giants AT&T (NYSE: T) and Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), reinforcing the company's leading position in its niche. That said, investors still lack detailed financial terms for these agreements, making it difficult to estimate how much revenue AST will ultimately capture and what costs it will incur. ASTS's Valuation Chasm: Current Results vs. Forward Estimates Investors should be aware of the large gap between AST SpaceMobile's recent financials and analysts' forward expectations. Over the last 12 months (LTM), AST generated just $4.9 million in revenue while trading at a market capitalization of roughly $31.4 billion. Among U.S. companies with $10 million or less in LTM revenue, ASTS has the highest market cap. The next most highly valued company in that group, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), carries a market cap of about $14.5 billion, underscoring how rich AST's backward-looking valuation is even among speculative names. Those lofty valuations are driven by analysts' revenue projections. For 2027 and 2028, consensus estimates call for AST to post roughly $830 million and $2.54 billion in revenue, respectively. Based on those forecasts, the stock would trade at forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of about 38x in 2027 and 12x in 2028 — far lower than its current LTM multiple would suggest and appearing more reasonable versus some other high-flyers. By comparison, analysts expect Rigetti and Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) to generate about $40 million and $144 million in revenue in 2027, implying forward P/S ratios near 374x and 100x for that year. Still, within the U.S. telecom group that publishes 2027 revenue projections, ASTS's forward P/S remains the highest by a wide margin. The average forward P/S among those peers is about 4x. ASTS: Analyst Forecasts Signal Nearly 50% Downside in Shares Of course, these forecasts are just that — projections. The implied growth from $4.9 million in LTM revenue to $830 million in 2027 would require many things to go right over a relatively short period. While possible, it represents a high bar. Reflecting near-term skepticism, the MarketBeat consensus price target sits just above $45, implying roughly 48% downside from the Oct. 9 closing price. Barclays recently raised its target from $37 to $60 — the most bullish outlook MarketBeat has tracked in 2025 — but even that implies about 39% downside. MarketBeat has not yet recorded analyst price-target updates following the Oct. 8 deal; additional revisions could shift the consensus and change the outlook. Bearish signals do not preclude further share gains, but they do highlight the significant risk in ASTS. Investors should weigh the potential upside from large telecom partnerships against the considerable execution and forecasting risks that remain.
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