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PayPal Stock: Why Wall Street May Be Undervaluing This Giant
Written by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 9/30/2025.
Key Points
- PayPal stock is down 21% YTD and trades at just 72% of its 52-week high, but fundamentals remain strong.
- Recent earnings showed EPS growth of 20%, driven by efficiency gains, while active accounts reached 438 million and payment volume rose 6%.
- Analysts and institutions are showing renewed optimism, with price targets as high as $100 and Amiral Gestion boosting holdings by 131%.
Market efficiency is often cited as proof that stock prices reflect all available information. However, this overlooks cases where companies slip from Wall Street's radar, creating a gap between fundamentals and valuation. For contrarian investors, these dislocations can offer prime buying opportunities.
PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) exemplifies this scenario. Amid relentless focus on a handful of mega-cap names, this digital payments leader trades at just 72% of its 52-week high, squarely in bear market territory. The key question: has the market mispriced PayPal's growth prospects?
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With the Federal Reserve embarking on what may be a prolonged easing cycle, both consumer and business spending could accelerate. As a frontrunner in digital payments, PayPal is well-positioned to benefit, yet its current valuation seems disconnected from that potential.
PayPal's Decline Looks Overdone
Despite a 21.2% year-to-date decline, PayPal's latest quarterly results tell a more positive story. Revenue rose 5% year-over-year to $8.3 billion in a quarter marked by tighter budgets and tariff concerns—solid growth considering the macro headwinds. The company also added two million new PayPal and Venmo card users in the U.S., lifting its active accounts total to 438 million in Q2 2025.
Total payment volume climbed 6% to $443.5 billion, underscoring the deepening network effects within PayPal's ecosystem.
By focusing on efficiency, PayPal converted 5% revenue growth into 20% earnings per share (EPS) growth. Q2 EPS of $1.40 beat the MarketBeat consensus of $1.30 by about 8%. With interest rates now trending lower, further upside appears likely.
Analysts See More Upside
The current consensus price target for PayPal is $84.50 per share, implying roughly 26% upside from today's levels. More bullish calls include Andrew Boone of JMP Securities, who has a $100 target (+48.5%), and Joseph Vafi of Canaccord Genuity at $96 (+42%), reflecting confidence in PayPal's ability to grow earnings even in a slow macro environment.
Institutional support is strengthening as well. In September 2025, Amiral Gestion boosted its PayPal holdings by 131% to $23 million, signaling conviction in PayPal's long-term prospects.
Where PayPal Could Be Headed
Looking ahead, Wall Street expects EPS of $1.54 for Q2 2026, about a 10% increase from PayPal's most recent performance. With the Fed's easing cycle providing a macro tailwind and 438 million active accounts entrenched in its platform, PayPal benefits from scale and stickiness that new entrants struggle to match. As users transact more frequently, the platform's economics strengthen, creating a durable growth engine not fully appreciated at today's valuation.
Despite recent underperformance, PayPal's earnings growth, expanding user base, and institutional backing suggest the stock remains undervalued. For investors seeking overlooked opportunities in the computer and technology sector, PayPal warrants a closer look.
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