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I'm finally ready to pull back the curtain on one of my most powerful trading tools — and it's something you literally can't get anywhere else without paying through the nose. My Data Miner tool has been quietly helping identify overpriced earnings options for years, and the methodology is surprisingly straightforward once you understand what we're actually measuring. The system tracks how often stocks have moved beyond their expected move over the last 20 quarters minimum, giving us a massive statistical edge that most traders completely miss. Here's why this matters so much: If you're expecting a 5% move and the stock only moves 2%, that means the option is over-inflated. And when options are consistently overpriced before earnings, that creates incredible opportunities for time spreads. My 50% Rule for Earnings Plays The selection criteria I use is dead simple but incredibly effective. I want to find stocks that underperform their expected move at least 50% of the time over the last 20 earnings reports — because that tells me the options are systematically overpriced before earnings hit. Think about what this really means. When the market consistently prices in bigger moves than actually happen, we've got a mathematical edge. The options premiums are inflated, and we can structure trades that benefit from that overpricing. It's not about guessing direction — it's about exploiting consistent mispricing patterns. Take Fastenal (FAST) as a recent example. The data showed an expected 5.6% move, but the actual move was only 3.89%. It did not outperform the expected number, which is exactly what our historical data suggested would happen. Just remember that there are no guarantees in trading, there’s always real risk involved and you can lose money. No system works every single time and if someone tells you otherwise, they’re lying. But the reason this approach works so consistently is that it removes the guesswork. We're not trying to predict whether a stock will beat or miss earnings. We're identifying patterns where the options market consistently overestimates volatility, and we're positioning ourselves to profit from that systematic error. P.S. If you want to check out my Data Miner in action, I’ll be live at 1 p.m. ET today! And I’ll have some goodies, of course… Get my No. 1 stock for November and more! The Most Predictable Trade of the Year — Revealed LIVE The talking heads on TV are all buzzing about the same thing right now. November. They’re saying it’s historically the strongest month of the year for stocks… They’re pointing to the "end-of-year rally" that often happens. And look, they’re right… The data going back decades supports it. But here’s the thing… That’s a 30,000-foot view… It’s fine for your 401(k), but for active traders like us? It’s just noise. Because that broad strength isn’t spread evenly across the month. It’s concentrated in tiny, explosive windows for very specific stocks. Knowing the market might go up in November is interesting. Knowing which stock is statistically primed to surge in the next few days… that’s powerful. My data-mining software just flagged one of these, what I call "Wealth Windows." It's my single favorite stock for November. And its most predictable surge period of the entire year opens tomorrow morning. Of course, while I cannot promise future returns or against losses… Based on the data, this could be a double-digit move right out of the gate. The Zoom room is open right now… I’ll give you the ticker… I'll show you the exact dates the data points to. And I have a major announcement about the future of this technology that I've been waiting months to share. The room is filling up as we speak… Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. The TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. Unsubscribe |
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