The world's richest man could get even richer... Of course, I'm talking about Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk.
I'm Wary of Elon Musk's Lofty Goals
By Ethan Goldman, junior analyst, Chaikin Analytics
The world's richest man could get even richer...
Of course, I'm talking about Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk.
You've probably seen the headlines by now. On November 6, Tesla shareholders approved a roughly $1 trillion new pay package for Musk. That value represents about 10 times Tesla's revenue last year. And for comparison, the company's market cap is roughly $1.4 trillion.
But there's a catch...
Musk doesn't get that money in cash up front.
To get the full value of this approved package, Musk needs to deliver some impressive feats. These include selling 1 million AI robots and having 1 million self-driving "Robotaxis" in commercial operation.
This would grow Tesla's market cap significantly. On top of operational goals, Musk would also need to raise Tesla's market cap to $8.5 trillion before he could claim his full reward.
That's a staggering number...
Chip titan Nvidia (NVDA) is currently the largest company on the stock market. It has a roughly $4.6 trillion market cap.
So among other goals, Musk would need to take Tesla's market cap to nearly double where Nvidia is now to claim his full pay package.
Put mildly, I'm skeptical he can pull it off. So are plenty of shareholders. And the Power Gauge is skeptical on Tesla, too...
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During midday trading on November 3, the stock jumped as high as roughly $474 per share. And on November 14, it hit a midday low of around $383 per share.
Yesterday, TSLA shares closed at about $409.
I'll note that most of the recent drop in the stock started around November 6 – the same day that shareholders approved Musk's massive compensation package. Tesla's stock ended the day trading at nearly $445 per share and plummeted afterward.
All this talk of lofty goals has likely made plenty of investors reconsider their conviction in Tesla.
I don't blame them...
As I said in my October essay, Tesla's revenue growth has rapidly slowed since 2021. And the company hasn't beaten its quarterly earnings expectations since the third quarter of last year.
Investors might have been calling a peak in the stock and taking profits before a predicted fall.
And the Power Gauge tells us that the Tesla bears are probably right...
The Power Gauge Is 'Bearish' On Tesla Again
Remember that Tesla hasn't received a "bullish" or better rating since January.
It dipped into "bearish" territory several times earlier this year. Then, it managed to stay firmly in "neutral" territory since the start of August. But on November 13, the Power Gauge rated Tesla as "bearish" for the first time in more than three months.
And it's easy to see why when we look at the breakdown...
As you can see, Tesla only gets one positive category grade – for Technicals. It scores the worst possible ratings for both the Financials and Earnings categories. And the Experts category is just "neutral" right now.
Meanwhile, the stock has only risen about 1% so far this year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 is up roughly 13% in 2025.
Tesla's shifting focus on robots and AI developments would probably make you think the stock would catch stronger tailwinds from the AI boom. But that's not happening.
Folks, you'll have to forgive me if I don't think Musk can multiply Tesla's market cap by more than 6 times...
I'll be listening to the Power Gauge – and keeping my money away from Tesla's stock.
Good investing,
Ethan Goldman Editor's note: Due to a technical error, this morning's Chaikin PowerFeed issue does not include the usual data from the Power Gauge below. We apologize for the inconvenience and are working to resolve the issue for the next edition of the PowerFeed.
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