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Don here...
Jeff didn't hold back this morning.
"This is the biggest load of garbage crap day ever. The news media is gonna pull something out and say it's going up because shut up. It's going up because it's rigged."
Thanksgiving week. Markets go up 99% of the time. Not because of fundamentals. Because of low volume gamma squeezing and year-end window dressing.
Jeff opened with the myth of Sisyphus. The Greek king punished by gods to roll a boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down each time he reached the top. Endless futile struggle.
That's this market.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why Fed Chair Powell just begged you to sell. He said equity prices are "fairly highly valued." Six words he never says unless trying to send a message. He needs markets down so he can justify rate cuts. But he can't say "highly valued" or markets crash. So he softens it with "fairly." Jeff breaks down why Powell's between a rock and a hard place.
- The luxury market collapse nobody's watching. Volkswagen's CEO announced they're seeing the luxury market declining next year. Not middle class consumers. Wealthy people who never worry about recessions are cutting back on $300,000 Bentley Continentals. When the rich get scared, that tells you where the real economy is.
- Why Bitcoin's three-times leveraged funds launching in Europe mark the peak. They're releasing these products now. After Bitcoin's already run. This is two years too late. Jeff's point: when they start pulling these products and canceling launches, that's when you look for bottoms. Right now this screams we're at the top.
- The Alibaba AI app that hit 10 million downloads in one week. Their Quen app is being marketed as better than ChatGPT. If Baba takes OpenAI's market share while OpenAI owes money to everyone and needs an IPO to survive, that's a massive problem Jeff thinks markets are underestimating.
- Why you need buyers for markets to exist but you don't need sellers for markets to die. Jeff posed this to his Loyola students. Without buyers, stocks go to zero. You don't need a preponderance of sellers. Just lack of buyers. Think about that when you see volume drying up in channels.
Jeff made his positioning clear. Every time the market moves higher, he reduces long exposure. He's adding defensive positions. He's selectively shorting names that broke technical levels.
The momentum on the S&P has broken. The trend hasn't. That's the key distinction. When momentum fails first, trend change follows. Not immediately. But inevitably.
Jeff's simple rule has worked his entire career: Never short into an uptrend. Never buy into a downtrend. Follow those two rules and you'll survive forever.
But if you keep chasing this Sisyphus market, they'll wipe you out.
→ Watch Jeff explain why algorithms just stopped defending dips and what that means for the next several weeks
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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