| The VIX does not tell you where stocks will go. It doesn't tell you if the market will go up or down. It tells you how loud fear is right now. But here's something important to remember... When it screams, it rarely keeps screaming. Markets tend to lean too far. Then they shift back toward their usual pace. The chart calls it mean reversion. To me, it's a second chance to act with a cool head while others shake. Over the years, I turned that one phone call into a simple plan. I don't try to guess the next shock. I let the shock find me. If you've never used the VIX before, here's all you need to know. Think of the weather right now. Imagine there's an intense storm and a tornado is on the horizon. Storm Sirens are wailing. What happens? Well, more often than not, the sirens stop. The storm passes. The same thing happens with volatility. You can see it happen a lot on big news days. It's fun to watch. Markets move because people do. Screens don't show fear or greed, but you can feel both in the tape. After the Flash Crash, I started watching not just prices, but how people react to them. That's where you'll find the trading advantage. Fear hits fast. It shows up as wide spreads, sloppy sells, and that hollow feeling when bids vanish. Then comes regret - late sellers chasing yesterday's exit. A little later, fatigue sets in. The urgent turns routine. That is when fear often cools, and the snap-back higher begins. Greed works the same way but in reverse. A hot story or trend runs, then runs some more, and suddenly "later" feels like never. Traders stop asking, "What is it worth?" and start asking, "How do I not miss it?" The first cracks are small - failed breakouts, weaker closes, a headline that doesn't squeeze higher. Enthusiasm fades, then the air leaks out. Most of us are wired to buy what feels safe and sell what feels scary. That's loss aversion talking. It's also why extremes don't last. Crowds overshoot and then correct. The trick is removing guesswork and watching to see who's trapped. At highs, it's often late buyers who paid any price. At lows, it's often late sellers who swore they'd "wait for a bounce." Trapped players create fuel. When they unwind, moves look bigger than they "should." That's not a flaw - it's the system working. Liquidity is deepest when no one needs it and thinnest when everyone does. When I think back to that day, I don't remember the headlines. I remember the sound of my mentor's voice and the line on the screen that wouldn't stay extreme. Fear spiked. It cooled. The market found its breath. That rhythm hasn't changed. In times like these, don't try to outguess the market anymore. Just wait for the sirens, mark where fear lives, and trade the return to normal with a plan. It isn't flashy. It's a habit. And on the days that matter, that habit is enough to help you build and protect your portfolio. If you want the exact rules Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld uses to trade volatility - the trigger, the vehicle, the exits - check out his Volatility Action Plan. It's plain English and built for days when the screen turns red. If you're ready to put this snap-back approach to work the right way, get Marc's plan now and follow it the next time the sirens start. Good investing, Kristin |
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