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Lessons From the Flash Crash πŸ’₯

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Lessons From the Flash Crash

Kristin Orman, Research Director, The Oxford Club

Kristin Orman

On May 6, 2010, the market fell like an elevator with a cut cable.

I was at my desk. A phone wedged to my ear. On the other end was my mentor. He had the calm voice of someone who had seen too much.

"Just watch," he said.

The quotes were a blur. The Dow dropped in chunks. Names I knew by heart printed nonsense prices. Charts looked broken. My heart raced.

He didn't raise his voice. "Tell me what fear looks like right now."

I stared at one line. It wasn't the S&P 500. It wasn't any stock.

It was the VIX. The market's fear gauge. It had shot up like a flare in the night sky.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is a real-time gauge of how much the market expects the S&P 500 to swing over the next 30 days, based on prices of S&P 500 index options. It's quoted as an annualized percentage, so higher readings mean bigger expected moves.

"That's it," he said. "Now remember what fear does."

I was quiet.

"It doesn't live at the top of the chart," he said. "It spikes. Then it cools. Like a rubber band. Stretch. Snap back."

I wanted to argue. It didn't feel like anything would ever be normal again. But then, he said something that I'll never forget...

"You don't predict the spike," he said. "You wait for it. Then you trade the cool-down."

We stayed on the line. Ten minutes. Twenty. Headlines kept rolling. The talking heads on the financial news stations kept squawking in the background.

The VIX stayed high. Then it blinked. Not a collapse. Just a stall. A hint. Like a wave losing energy.

That day taught me a clean truth.

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The VIX does not tell you where stocks will go. It doesn't tell you if the market will go up or down.

It tells you how loud fear is right now.

But here's something important to remember...

When it screams, it rarely keeps screaming. Markets tend to lean too far. Then they shift back toward their usual pace. The chart calls it mean reversion.

To me, it's a second chance to act with a cool head while others shake.

Over the years, I turned that one phone call into a simple plan.

I don't try to guess the next shock. I let the shock find me.

If you've never used the VIX before, here's all you need to know.

Think of the weather right now. Imagine there's an intense storm and a tornado is on the horizon. Storm Sirens are wailing. What happens?

Well, more often than not, the sirens stop. The storm passes.

The same thing happens with volatility.

You can see it happen a lot on big news days. It's fun to watch.

Markets move because people do. Screens don't show fear or greed, but you can feel both in the tape.

After the Flash Crash, I started watching not just prices, but how people react to them. That's where you'll find the trading advantage.

Fear hits fast. It shows up as wide spreads, sloppy sells, and that hollow feeling when bids vanish.

Then comes regret - late sellers chasing yesterday's exit. A little later, fatigue sets in. The urgent turns routine. That is when fear often cools, and the snap-back higher begins.

Greed works the same way but in reverse.

A hot story or trend runs, then runs some more, and suddenly "later" feels like never. Traders stop asking, "What is it worth?" and start asking, "How do I not miss it?"

The first cracks are small - failed breakouts, weaker closes, a headline that doesn't squeeze higher. Enthusiasm fades, then the air leaks out.

Most of us are wired to buy what feels safe and sell what feels scary. That's loss aversion talking. It's also why extremes don't last.

Crowds overshoot and then correct.

The trick is removing guesswork and watching to see who's trapped. At highs, it's often late buyers who paid any price. At lows, it's often late sellers who swore they'd "wait for a bounce."

Trapped players create fuel. When they unwind, moves look bigger than they "should." That's not a flaw - it's the system working. Liquidity is deepest when no one needs it and thinnest when everyone does.

When I think back to that day, I don't remember the headlines. I remember the sound of my mentor's voice and the line on the screen that wouldn't stay extreme.

Fear spiked. It cooled. The market found its breath. That rhythm hasn't changed. In times like these, don't try to outguess the market anymore. Just wait for the sirens, mark where fear lives, and trade the return to normal with a plan.

It isn't flashy. It's a habit. And on the days that matter, that habit is enough to help you build and protect your portfolio.

If you want the exact rules Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld uses to trade volatility - the trigger, the vehicle, the exits - check out his Volatility Action Plan.

It's plain English and built for days when the screen turns red. If you're ready to put this snap-back approach to work the right way, get Marc's plan now and follow it the next time the sirens start.

Good investing,

Kristin

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