| Hey there, Wednesday brought some much-needed relief to Wall Street as softer economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates in December. With Thanksgiving tomorrow, traders are heading into the holiday on a decidedly optimistic note. The Case for a December Cut Just Got StrongerAll three major indexes climbed 0.3%, with the Dow building on Tuesday's monster 660-point rally. The catalyst? A string of weaker-than-expected economic readings that suggests the Fed has room to ease. September retail sales came in softer than forecast, and core producer prices rose less than expected. Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 22 also surprised to the downside, while durable goods orders slowed as anticipated. "Stocks are celebrating the likelihood of a December rate cut, as it's becoming clear that the labor market is the priority for the Federal Reserve," said Paul Stanley, CIO at Granite Bay Wealth Management. "Another rate cut would help to protect against any further cooling of the job market." Money markets are now pricing in a 76% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting. That's a significant shift from just days ago when traders were evenly split. The Broader ContextStanley offered an important perspective on November's volatility: "It's becoming more clear that the stock market declines seen over most of November were simply a pullback after an extremely strong run in October and September." In other words, the recent selling pressure wasn't the beginning of something sinister—it was just markets taking a breather after an incredible rally. Treasury yields edged higher despite the rate cut speculation, with the 10-year climbing 3 basis points to 4.03% and the 2-year rising 4 basis points to 3.49%. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold gained 0.5% to $4,162 an ounce. Big Tech Winners and LosersDell Technologies surged 3% after crushing expectations and raising its full-year sales outlook. The company now expects revenue of $111.2-$112.2 billion for FY2026—up 17% year-over-year at the midpoint and well above its prior $105-$109 billion range. The kicker? Dell expects $25 billion from AI servers, up from a previous $20 billion estimate. For Q4 alone, Dell projects revenue of $31-$32 billion versus the $27.64 billion consensus. AI infrastructure demand is very real. Autodesk soared 6% on strong Q3 results and positive guidance, with revenue up 18% driven by broad double-digit growth across all regions. Alphabet climbed 1.5% in premarket trading after reports emerged that Google is in talks to supply chips to Meta Platforms. The potential deal for tensor processing units came at Nvidia's expense—Nvidia shares fell 1.4%. On the flip side, several tech names took it on the chin: Nutanix plunged 16% after slashing guidance, forecasting Q2 revenue of $705-$715 million versus the $749 million estimate and lowering full-year projections. Zscaler tumbled 8% despite beating estimates, weighed down by an operating loss that spooked investors. HP dropped 5% after offering weak guidance for the upcoming year—projecting full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.90-$3.20, well below the $3.34 consensus. The company also announced plans to cut 4,000-6,000 employees. Workday dipped 6% even after raising its full-year forecast. Sometimes even good news isn't good enough. Robinhood's Big DayRobinhood Markets surged 6.2%, continuing its recent momentum as retail trading activity remains robust heading into year-end. The Blue Candle System: 80%+ Win Rates 3 simple steps: Warm up → Entry → Profit target BLACK FRIDAY PRICE: $197 LIFETIME (Regular $497) - 87.57% win rate on QQQ
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LIFETIME ACCESS - $300 SAVINGS [CLAIM YOUR $197 DEAL NOW] Major Policy MovesThe Trump administration just negotiated massive Medicare drug discounts. The government will now pay $274 for a 30-day supply of Ozempic and Wegovy, down from $959—a 71% discount. The negotiated prices take effect in 2027 and are expected to save taxpayers $12 billion. Trump's team is negotiating a trade deal with Taiwan that could commit Taiwanese companies like TSMC to fresh investment and training programs for U.S. workers in semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan currently faces a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S., and Taipei is working to reduce that figure. Semiconductors are currently exempt while the U.S. builds domestic capacity. Foxconn secured approval to invest an additional $569 million in Wisconsin to meet growing AI infrastructure demand. The move will create 1,374 new jobs over four years and double Foxconn's Wisconsin presence by decade's end. The Lighter SideIn perhaps the most unexpected headline of the day: Rush Hour 4 is officially happening—and apparently President Trump "personally pressed" Paramount to revive the buddy-cop franchise nearly two decades after the last installment. Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker are returning, along with director Brett Ratner. Hollywood meets the White House in the most Trump way possible. Global TensionsThe Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a possible rate hike as soon as next month, reviving hawkish language as concerns about yen weakness return. A key meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week appeared to remove political objections to rate increases. Italy's antitrust authority expanded its probe against Meta, investigating allegations that the company abused its dominant position using AI tools on WhatsApp without users' explicit consent. What's Next?Markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, giving everyone a chance to digest turkey and reflect on a volatile but ultimately successful 2024. When trading resumes Friday for a shortened session, the focus will remain on Fed policy and whether December's rate cut is truly a done deal. For now, the path of least resistance appears to be higher. Softer economic data has given the Fed cover to cut, and that's all the market needs to hear heading into the holiday. Enjoy the break, Your Market Correspondent FindBetterTrades P.S. - Remember, markets close early on Black Friday. So if you're planning to trade between turkey leftovers and shopping deals, set your alarm accordingly. | 
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