The Debasement "Trade" “Bitcoin is the “black hole” against reckless monetary policy.”
— Max Keiser  The bitcoin bull will resume when liquidity improves and concern over
the value of fiat currencies like the dollar rises again. November 18, 2025 — Suddenly, the likes of Goldman and JP Morgan are talking about the rise of cryptocurrencies and the mainstream press are framing it as “the so-called Debasement Trade.”
Bitcoiners, of course, have been talking about this for, well since the beginning.
Except, it’s not a “trade.”
The trade du jour lasts for a couple weeks or a few months – then it starts getting referred to as “a crowded trade” and then some new theme emerges and all the hot-money rotates into that.
Back in September, a finance guru I’m aware of (I won’t name him) sold 90% of his bitcoin and crypto positions (via IBIT and ETH) “due to bearish MACD crosses and support breaks.”
Bitcoin then ran to new all-time highs. He’s also since followed up, acknowledging that Bitcoin ran to fresh highs, but he still expects a 40% to 50% decline in cryptos over the next year because of that MACD crossover. That said, he sold his TSLA and went back into Bitcoin – just in time for the current ~30% drop.
As I’ve long said, bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.
I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.
The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.
What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency ("it's the denominator, stupid") for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.
To be fair to that finance influencer, I don’t follow him enough to know if he maintains separate core Bitcoin stack in self-custody, and these moves are just referring to his trading activities, as distinct from long term holds.
I don’t know if he’ll be proven right or wrong about a 50% drop – what I do know, and something I found out the hard way right when I was about to launch The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter, was that trying to pick the intermediate tops and bottoms when it came to Bitcoin was a fool’s errand.
You end up getting whipsawed. It sure looks like I’m watching it happen to this guy right now.
The advice I’ve been giving to my subscribers over the years, both for Bitcoin and the stocks we hold in our portfolio has always been: - Don’t try to time or trade the intermediate tops
- Whenever Bitcoin (or one of our holdings drops) we ask ourselves:
- Is the underlying thesis intact?
- If yes: the only decision is whether to buy more or hold through
- If no: then you exit the position, at the moment your thesis is invalidated, regardless of the price.
- Beyond that – exit when your own personal financial goals are met.
That’s it, basically the entire Bitcoin Capitalist playbook right here.
What got me thinking about all this today was all these headlines we’ve been seeing lately about “The Debasement Trade.”
This has been so obvious to Bitcoiners (and before that, goldbugs), for so long, that I didn’t really “clue in” to the fact that our entire long-term thesis is finally in the process of being mainstreamed right now. Bond yields going up even though central banks are cutting rates, is sending a signal.
Stonks are hitting levels that make the dotcom bubble look like a bombed-out value play.
Why?
Because these aren’t trades anymore.
It’s capital flight.
Mark Jeftovic
The Crypto Capitalist & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity Continued Below... | Washington just green-lit a crypto system designed to control $100 trillion in global finance. And we found a way to play it. Click here | P.S. from Addison: Mark’s insights – which first appeared in the October issue of our monthly Grey Swan Bulletin – provide key guidance for navigating the crypto market.
Start small – at the very least get off of zero allocation to crypto – and then gradually add to that position. Don’t overleverage. Enjoy the ride – which will be more wild in crypto than other assets.
While the current price action has been poor in the very short-term, we expect expanding monetary conditions in 2026, which could more than make up for today’s immediate price pain. We’ll talk with Mark more on Thursday on Grey Swan Live!
This week on Grey Swan Live!, we’ve got another two-fer on the schedule for you:
On Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST we’ll take deep dive into our Dollar 2.0 thesis, with guests Ian King and Mark Jeftovic. The investment thesis remains well intact going into 2026, despite the recent, nasty selloff in the crypto market.
Then on Friday, November 12, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PSTwe’ve invited our friends at Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.
Prime’s Nick Buhelos will join us again make sure you maximize your investment returns – by walking you through the correct financial structure you need to take advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors.  If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.  (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
Post a Comment
Post a Comment