| Ripple Effect — November 7, 2025
The last time we saw a non-pandemic surge in layoffs like this was after the tech wreck in 2000-’02:  Layoffs have jumped to their highest monthly rate since 2003. (Source: Barchart) Welcome to what efficiency consultant Robert Allen calls the Engels’ Pause: efficiency up, payrolls down.
Anticipating a sluggish labor market, the Fed has cut rates twice this fall.
Unfortunately, you can’t fix a reorganization with cheaper money. AI will eat the easy tasks first, so the pain you see — pink slips — is only half the story. Those jobs will likely never return.
Harry Dent was adamant about the second part of the story on Grey Swan Live! yesterday: New technology always leads to newer higher higher-paying jobs. Always.
The Engels’ Pause recognizes a lag between higher corporate profits and new job openings. You can expect the slow job market to raise new concerns about a deepening recession outside of AI and the stock market.
~ Addison | 
Population 2,128. One road in, one road out. Yet Spruce Pine, North Carolina controls something so critical that without it, every piece of modern technology stops working. MarketWatch, Tom's Hardware, and Business Insider all confirm: this tiny town is essential to the entire semiconductor industry. See the full story here… | P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! chat with Harry Dent raved about AI — massive new life-altering technology — while also admitting there’s an AI stock market bubble forming.
“Stock market crashes and economic recessions,” Dent says, “are a good thing!” It’s what the government does to fight them that causes problems in people’s lives. To understand Harry’s cold, hard point of view, watch the replay here:  The transcript will also be available soon. If you’re a paid-up member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you’ll get a link in your email inbox as soon as it’s ready.
Harry was great. He’s an eloquent speaker. We thoroughly enjoyed our Live! conservation with the man.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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