| Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Dear Valued Reader, President Trump declared Tuesday that he thinks he's identified his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, adding that "people are holding me back" from firing current chair Jerome Powell immediately. While refusing to name his pick, Trump's comments signal that the decision replacing Powell when his term ends in May is essentially made, pending formal announcement after Thanksgiving. Key TakeawayTrump says he already knows his Fed Chair choice from a shortlist that includes Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, and BlackRock's Rieder. The next chair must balance Trump's desire for lower rates against maintaining market confidence as Powell's term ends in May. The ShortlistTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent, leading the search, has narrowed candidates to five names: current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Trump hinted at unpredictability in his choice, saying "we have some surprising names and we have some standard names that everybody's talking about," before adding "we may go the standard way. It's nice to every once in a while go politically correct." This suggests he might choose an established Fed insider rather than an unconventional pick. Bessent plans to present formal recommendations after Thanksgiving, though Trump's comments suggest the decision is effectively made even if not yet officially announced. Powell's Uncertain Remaining MonthsTrump's frustration with Powell remained evident: "I'd love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back." Powell's term as chair ends in May, though his governor term continues through 2028, potentially creating an awkward situation where Trump's choice leads the Fed while Powell remains on the board. Trump reiterated wanting Bessent himself to take the Fed position, but acknowledged "the Treasury secretary enjoys his role in the administration too much to leave." This suggests Bessent has declined consideration despite Trump's preference. The Timing and StructureThe next chair will likely be named to a 14-year Fed governor term opening February 1st, currently held by Stephen Miran who is on unpaid leave from the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This timing allows Trump to install his choice on the board before formally elevating them to chair when Powell's term expires in May. This two-step process provides continuity while ensuring Trump's pick has board membership secured before taking the chairmanship. The Impossible Balancing ActWhoever Trump chooses faces an extraordinarily difficult challenge: appealing to the president's explicit desire for lower interest rates while maintaining the market confidence that depends on Fed independence. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being "too slow to slash interest rates," making clear he expects his next chair to be more accommodative. But markets value Fed independence precisely because it prevents short-term political pressure from compromising long-term price stability. A chair perceived as too eager to please Trump could trigger bond market turmoil and dollar weakness that undermines the very economic growth Trump seeks. Market ImplicationsThe candidates signal different approaches to this tension. Waller and Bowman are current Fed governors with established track records and market credibility. Warsh is a former Fed official known for hawkish tendencies during the financial crisis. Hassett brings White House experience but less monetary policy expertise. Rieder represents a private sector perspective from the world's largest asset manager. Markets will scrutinize the choice for signals about future policy direction and Fed independence. A selection viewed as prioritizing Trump's rate preferences over economic fundamentals could trigger the kind of market reaction that undermines confidence in U.S. assets. What to WatchFormal announcements should come after Thanksgiving, with the February 1st board appointment providing the first concrete indication of Trump's choice before the May transition to chair. Market reaction to the announcement will reveal whether investors believe Fed independence can be maintained under Trump's selection. The key will be how the chosen candidate frames their approach—emphasizing data-dependent policy and price stability suggests continuity with Powell's approach despite Trump's criticisms, while emphasizing growth and employment could signal a more dovish stance that alarms inflation hawks. BLACK FRIDAY - S&R PRO SCANNER 60% OFF! Smart Money Support & Resistance Scanner - $197 Get trade alerts on stocks, crypto & forex delivered to your phone! $497 → BLACK FRIDAY: Just $197 (Lifetime Access!) ✓ Breakout & Bounce alerts sent directly to you ✓ 20-30 quality setups per week across all markets ✓ Entry, stop loss & take profit included with every alert ✓ No charts, no indicators, just profitable setups ✓ BONUS: Legacy 9 Stocks + Top 5 Setups + Masterclass + Playbook 🔥 SAVE $300 - LIFETIME ACCESS! 👉 [GET SCANNER FOR $197 NOW] 30-Day Risk-Free Trial | Works on phone, tablet, PC | Real-time Telegram alerts Stay Connected Thank you for reading. I'll continue monitoring Fed leadership developments and their implications for monetary policy and markets. Until next time, FindBetterTrades | 
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