| The dollar fell against major currencies Friday as investors balanced the Fed's hawkish tilt against economic concerns, with the government shutdown creating a data vacuum. Here's where key assets stand. USD: Data Blackout Creates UncertaintyThe dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.56, set to drop 0.15% for the week and end two straight weeks of gains. The extended government shutdown prevented release of October's jobs report, forcing traders to rely on private sector data showing the economy shed jobs in government and retail sectors. "With the December Fed meeting more or less a coin toss which crucially depends on the labor market picture, the market is overreacting to any hints about the labor market," notes Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. "Our view remains that Powell's comments from the last FOMC meeting suggest that the bar for a December cut is high." Barclays forecasts a 60% chance the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ends between November 11-21, with 15% probability it extends into December. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.2 basis points to 4.091%. Despite recent weakness, TS Lombard analysts note: "We have been calling for a dollar bounce for a while now and are still looking for some gains in the near term, as U.S. growth momentum remains strong while dollar sentiment is relatively weak." EUR: Recovering from Two-Week LossesThe euro rose 0.15% to $1.15564 Friday, on track to gain 0.26% for the week after two consecutive weekly losses. The EURO traded to the upside last week as traders witnessed the dollar's fall, however most traders hold the notion this could be beyond correction and the market would be trading bearishly from now on. With the EURO rising, the next bias could aim for 1.1700 as the single currency draws support from expectations of a steady ECB policy rate, while both the U.S. and UK are expected to cut rates further in 2026. GBP: Corrective Move HigherThe POUND also traded in a corrective move, trading higher into the 1.3200 territory. Chances remain that price could aim for levels above 1.3350 if the dollar continues dropping lower. Sterling benefits from the same dynamics as the euro – relatively stable domestic policy expectations compared to anticipated further easing from the Fed. GBPJPY: Mixed Bias Above 200The POUND-YEN traded higher after dropping below the 200.00 level. Chances remain that price will stay above this psychological level, but there's mixed bias as resistance around 205.00 could cause sellers to take the wheel again. This cross faces conflicting forces from both pound strength and yen safe-haven dynamics. The dollar rose 0.25% against the yen to 153.44 but was on track to fall 0.39% for the week, snapping two straight weeks of gains. The Japanese yen emerged as the market's preferred defensive play earlier this week during safe-haven flows, even as the dollar regained some safe-haven appeal. GOLD: Critical $4,000 LevelGold successfully closed above the $4,000 mark. Even though bias remains neutral or bearish, traders anticipate that a drop in gold would result in a larger bearish market. However, if price can hold this level and rise further, we could see the $5,000 level being tackled. This represents a critical juncture for the precious metal after months of relentless rally. BITCOIN: Below $100KBitcoin traded into the $100,000 level last week before pulling back into $101,000. Chances are price will continue remaining bearish with traders expecting levels well into the $90,000s as the cryptocurrency faces pressure from risk-off sentiment. The psychological $100K level failed to hold, suggesting deeper correction may be ahead. Week Ahead: Will Shutdown End?With the government shutdown potentially ending mid-November, markets await return of official economic data. The December Fed meeting remains a coin toss depending on labor market developments once data resumes flowing. Watch for any signs of shutdown resolution and how quickly normal data releases can resume – this will be crucial for determining whether the dollar's recent weakness extends or reverses. LAST CHANCE - BLACK FRIDAY ENDS TONIGHT! Layered Options: Your 2025 Income Project 87% win rate. $1K weekly targets. One trade. Every Thursday. FINAL HOURS: $97 LIFETIME (Was $1,497) ✓ Get exact trade details emailed every Thursday ✓ Place trade at 3:15 PM in under 60 seconds ✓ Walk away - trade closes automatically ✓ Target $52,000+ in income this year ✓ FREE: Options bootcamp + lifetime alerts + support ⚠️ EXPIRES TONIGHT - SAVE $1,400! 👉 [LOCK IN LIFETIME ACCESS - $97] Risk-free 30-day trial | Any brokerage | Paper trade to test it first Kind regards, FindBetterTrades | 
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