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Today's Featured Content Holiday Spending to Hit $1 Trillion—Time to Buy This Retail ETF?Written by Jordan Chussler. Published 11/24/2025. 
Key Points - Consumer discretionary stocks have been uninspiring in 2025, but with Christmas approaching, that could change.
- For the first time ever, holiday spending in the United States is projected to surpass $1 trillion.
- The VanEck Retail ETF can provide exposure for investors hoping for a near-term rally through the end of the year.
Between tariffs, persistent inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar, 2025 has been a difficult year for the consumer discretionary sector. When household budgets are tight, consumers direct their spending to essentials while big-ticket items—new cars, electronics, vacations, and restaurant meals—get postponed. In 2025 the sector's year-to-date gain of 0.51% is the second-worst performance among the S&P 500's 11 sectors; only consumer staples, down 0.90%, has fared worse. Imagine a bull market so powerful, every single investor became a millionaire. Not by finding the next NVIDIA or Bitcoin, but by owning a simple index fund.
It sounds impossible. Yet it happened – just a short time ago. Now a legendary figure says: "Brace yourselves. It's about to happen here, in America. But fair warning – it could be the worst thing that ever happens to you."
This story has received little coverage in the press. But if history repeats, it could bump tens of millions of Americans into a 7-figure net worth practically overnight. Click here for the full story. Those trends may persist into 2026. But with the holidays approaching, short-term dynamics can shift quickly. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. holiday spending will reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for the first time ever. That would be an increase of 3.7% over 2024's $976.1 billion. Although the consumer discretionary sector has broadly underperformed this year, the VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:RTH) offers a way to gain exposure to leading retailers that could benefit from a late-year spending surge. The Who’s Who of Consumer Discretionary Stocks The fund's nearly 11% gain in 2025 trails the S&P 500 but has outperformed the broader consumer discretionary sector. According to the ETF's prospectus, it seeks to replicate the performance of the MVIS® US Listed Retail 25 Index (MVRTHTR). That index tracks companies involved in retail distribution, e-commerce, multi-line and specialty retail, and food staples. In short, RTH can add some of the biggest consumer names to a portfolio ahead of the holidays. Its top holdings include mega-cap giants like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart (NYSE: WMT), and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), which together account for nearly 38% of the fund's assets. The remaining 62% is allocated among prominent consumer stocks in the S&P 500, including home improvement retailers Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), off-price apparel and footwear chains TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST), and retailers such as Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), and Target (NYSE: TGT). A DIY Santa Claus Rally for Your Portfolio RTH provides about 80.5% exposure to specialty retail, positioning shareholders to benefit if consumer spending picks up during the holiday shopping season. Consumer sentiment has cooled—the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October and 71.8 a year earlier—but that hasn't stopped consumers from planning holiday purchases. According to Talker Research, nearly one in three Americans expects to fall into debt this holiday season. The study also found that 51% of shoppers created a holiday budget this year, and among those, 64% have already overspent or expect to do so. That is positive for retailers and for holders of the VanEck Retail ETF. The fund charges a low expense ratio of 0.35%, which is more than offset by the fund's dividend yield of 0.70% (about $1.73 per share annually at current prices), providing a modest income cushion for investors. Is RTH a Buy Ahead of Black Friday? Institutional ownership in the fund is under 26%, but buyers have dominated recent activity: the ETF saw $45.14 million in inflows versus $6.33 million in outflows over the past 12 months. Short interest is very low at 0.69%—a nearly 7% month-over-month decline—suggesting few traders are betting against the fund as Q4 approaches. Average daily volume is light, at roughly 5,005 shares, which could constrain liquidity for some investors. Still, across the fund's 25 holdings and 628 analyst ratings, not a single company is rated Reduce, Sell, or Strong Sell. For investors looking to play a potential Santa Claus rally, the VanEck Retail ETF provides diversified exposure to leading retail names at a modest cost during a period of historically strong consumer spending.
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