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For Your Education and Enjoyment Why Target Stock May Keep Falling Despite a 5% Dividend Yield Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - Target's core retail performance continues to weaken, with comps down and digital growth failing to offset in-store declines.
- Despite weak earnings and guidance, Target’s capital return program remains intact with a projected 5% dividend yield by late 2025.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional trends remain bearish, pointing to further downside risk for the stock.
Target (NYSE: TGT) is trading in deep-value territory, offering a projected 5% dividend yield in late 2025, but that alone may not justify buying the stock. Although a recovery in 2026 is possible, near-term headwinds remain pronounced. Target's Q3 earnings release and guidance update showed declining store sales and tepid digital growth, signaling continued weakness into the new year. 
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