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Featured Content from MarketBeat Media Holiday Spending to Hit $1 Trillion—Time to Buy This Retail ETF?Written by Jordan Chussler. Published 11/24/2025. 
Key Points - Consumer discretionary stocks have been uninspiring in 2025, but with Christmas approaching, that could change.
- For the first time ever, holiday spending in the United States is projected to surpass $1 trillion.
- The VanEck Retail ETF can provide exposure for investors hoping for a near-term rally through the end of the year.
Between tariffs, sticky inflation, and ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, it has been a difficult year for the consumer discretionary sector. When household budgets are strained, consumers focus their spending on essentials, while new cars, electronics, vacations and restaurant meals often get postponed. Such has been the case in 2025: the consumer discretionary sector's year-to-date gain of 0.51% is the second-worst performance among the S&P 500's 11 sectors. Only consumer staples, down 0.90%, has fared worse so far this year. Those trends may persist into 2026, but with the holidays approaching, short-term dynamics can change. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. holiday spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for the first time—an increase of 3.7% over 2024's $976.1 billion. While the broader consumer discretionary sector has underperformed this year, the VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:RTH) offers concentrated exposure to leading retail names that could benefit from a year-end spending boost. The Who’s Who of Consumer Discretionary Stocks The fund's roughly 11% year-to-date gain in 2025 trails the S&P 500 but has outperformed the broader consumer discretionary sector. According to the ETF's prospectus, RTH seeks to replicate the MVIS® US Listed Retail 25 Index (MVRTHTR), which tracks companies involved in retail distribution, e-commerce, multi-line and specialty retail, and food staples. In short, RTH provides exposure to many of the biggest consumer names heading into the holiday season. Its top holdings include mega-cap giants such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), which together account for nearly 38% of the fund's portfolio. The remaining 62% is distributed across prominent consumer-focused companies, including home-improvement retailers Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW); off-price apparel and footwear retailers TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST); and other retailers such as Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Target (NYSE: TGT). A DIY Santa Claus Rally for Your Portfolio RTH offers about 80.5% exposure to specialty retail, positioning shareholders to potentially benefit as consumer spending ramps up late in November and through the holidays. Consumer sentiment has cooled—The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October, and from 71.8 a year earlier—but that hasn't stopped consumers from spending during the holiday season. A Talker Research study found that nearly one in three Americans expects to slip into debt this holiday season. It also showed that 51% of shoppers created a holiday budget this year, and among those, 64% have already overspent or expect to overspend. That's encouraging for retailers and for RTH shareholders. The ETF carries a low expense ratio of 0.35% and currently yields about 0.70%—roughly $1.73 per share annually at current prices. Is RTH a Buy Ahead of Black Friday? Institutional ownership is modest at under 26%, but investor flows have been positive: roughly $45.14 million in inflows versus $6.33 million in outflows over the past 12 months. Short interest is also minimal at 0.69%—about a 7% decline versus last month—suggesting limited bearish positioning ahead of the holidays. Liquidity can be a consideration: the fund's average daily volume is light, at roughly 5,005 shares traded per day, which may constrain trading for some investors. On the other hand, of the fund's 25 holdings, across 628 analyst ratings, none are rated Reduce, Sell or Strong Sell. For investors eyeing a potential Santa Claus rally, the VanEck Retail ETF provides diversified exposure to leading retail names that historically benefit from seasonal strength in consumer spending.
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