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For Your Education and Enjoyment Will the S&P 500 Rally in December? These 3 Signals Point to a Big Move AheadWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/25/2025. 
Key Points - The S&P 500 is in an uptrend; the November consolidation sets up a buying opportunity.
- Retail results, a reignited AI trade, and easing macroeconomic headwinds set the market up to rally.
- New highs may come before year-end or at the latest early 2026.
Risks remain, but the S&P 500's (NYSEARCA: SPY) uptrend is intact. November's correction looked more like a broad-market consolidation, positioning the market for another leg of the rally—likely to play out in December. Below are three themes driving S&P 500 price action and why the index is poised to reach new highs before year-end. 
Macro-Economic Headwinds Ease A major shift is coming to the gold market — the world's largest gold buyer is preparing to launch a new way for everyday Americans to invest in gold with a click, and when it goes live in 2026 it could unleash a wave of demand unlike anything we've seen. Garrett Goggin believes one $1.60 gold stock is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of this surge — a move where even a small price jump could mean a meaningful gain — along with several other miners set to ride the same trend. Click here to see the $1.60 gold stock and Garrett's full list of recommendations Macroeconomic uncertainty has weighed on investors all year, stemming from trade tensions, tariff impacts and—more recently—the government shutdown. Heading into December the backdrop has improved: the shutdown ended, trade relations haven't deteriorated further, and tariff pressures have eased. In particular, the impact of tariffs on Q3 results was far less than expected. On average, S&P 500 companies beat consensus estimates by more than 600 basis points, well above the norm, and the Q4 reporting season is likely to show a similar pattern. Although Q3 results outperformed and many companies raised guidance, the Q4 consensus forecast has remained largely unchanged—suggesting Q4 results may again outpace expectations. Meanwhile, markets still expect the FOMC to begin cutting rates in 2026, although the outlook has shifted somewhat. Investors continue to price in two to three 25-basis-point cuts by next summer, and the odds of a cut in December are material and could rise as new data arrives. With the government shutdown over, withheld government data is being released and is broadly consistent with a healthy, though cooler, economy compared with the prior year. Retail Earnings Were Good, Guidance Was Increased While pockets of weakness showed up in the retail sector's earnings, the overall trend was bullish. Most retailers grew revenue and earnings, delivered solid margins and issued favorable guidance. The takeaway: Black Friday and Cyber Monday mark the start of the holiday-shopping season and are likely to exceed forecasts. Holiday spending is currently expected to rise about 3% to 3.5%, with strength concentrated in e-commerce. Deals and value should favor off-price retailers and Walmart. Importantly for investors, retail leaders like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) generate solid cash flow, pay attractive dividends and buy back shares—sometimes aggressively. The next visible catalyst is the Q4 reporting cycle in January, but analysts could lift the sector before then through revisions to revenue, earnings and price targets based on Q3 results and early holiday-sales data. The AI Trade Is Reignited Fears of an AI bubble bursting were pushed aside by NVIDIA's (NASDAQ: NVDA) Q3 results, which beat expectations, and by news that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) plans to invest up to $50 billion in AI infrastructure for U.S. government contracts. Together, these developments underscore durable demand for AI across commercial and public sectors. The NVIDIA release confirms that its AI business is larger and faster-growing than many expected, with acceleration in the second half of the year. That positions the company to outperform in the current and upcoming quarters and to sustain momentum longer term. The S&P 500 remains on course to reach the 7,300 mark. The move may not happen before year-end, but a rebound is likely to begin soon, with new highs following. Technically, the stochastic oscillator has retreated to the middle of its range, signaling a market that has rebalanced and still has ample room to move higher.
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