Thanksgiving Week: China Tech, PC Giants & Deere's BottomHappy Monday! Rough week last week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell over 1.9%, putting both indexes on track for their worst November since 2008. What happened? Despite Nvidia's strong earnings, the AI trade lost steam. Maybe it's profit-taking after a 30%+ rally from April lows. Maybe it's doubts creeping in. This is a short Thanksgiving week with thin liquidity, stale data, and limited earnings. But we've still got some heavy hitters: Alibaba and Chinese EV makers give us a China read, Dell and HP tell us about PC demand, and Deere shows us if agriculture has finally bottomed. With light trading, vibes might matter more than fundamentals this week. The Big PictureEarnings season is basically done — 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with over 80% beating earnings expectations and 75% beating on sales. That's strong. But here's the problem: the Fed won't get another jobs report or CPI data before their December 9-10 meeting. They're flying blind into that rate decision. What's Coming This WeekSeptember Data Dump (Tuesday): We're finally getting delayed September retail sales and PPI data. In August, retail sales rose 0.6% and PPI was up 2.6% year-over-year. Consumer Confidence (Tuesday): Expected at 93.3, down from October's 94.6. That was the lowest reading in 4.5 years outside of the March/April tariff chaos. Durable Goods (Wednesday): Expected up 1% month-over-month after a 2.9% gain in August. Fed Beige Book (Wednesday): The final beige book of the year. Anecdotal economic data from the 12 regional Fed banks. Thanksgiving (Thursday): Markets closed.Black Friday (Friday): Markets close early — stocks at 1 PM, bonds at 2 PM ET. Your Day-by-Day BreakdownMonday, November 24 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS — Expected: low single-digit growth in revenue and earnings. Trading under 10x P/E excluding cash, which is cheap for a software company. Bulls say Zoom is stabilizing its core business and benefiting from early AI monetization. Bears point to muted growth. The company has beaten earnings expectations 8 straight quarters but missed revenue twice. Also reporting: Agilent Technologies, Keysight Technologies Tuesday, November 25 — China and PC Giants ReportThis is the busiest day of the week. ALIBABA — China's e-commerce giant reports. Expected: 5% revenue growth but a massive 61% profit decline. The company just launched a refreshed AI chatbot (Qwen) to compete with ChatGPT and Gemini. Cloud business grew 26% recently. Bulls see 15-20% upside and an improving earnings trajectory. Bears worry about growth momentum and valuation. This report will tell us if Chinese consumer spending is holding up. DELL TECHNOLOGIES — Expected results on the PC and server side. With AI infrastructure spending still strong, Dell's data center business will be key. Stock is up big this year on AI optimism. HP INC. — The other PC giant. Consumer and enterprise demand for PCs will tell us if the refresh cycle is real or fading. BEST BUY — The electronics retailer reports right before the holiday shopping season. Are consumers buying TVs, laptops, and gadgets, or are they pulling back? NIO — China's EV maker. Another read on Chinese consumer demand and EV momentum. Also reporting: Zscaler (cybersecurity), Workday (enterprise software), Autodesk, Analog Devices, Kohl's, Nutanix, NetApp, Urban Outfitters, Dick's Sporting Goods, Burlington Stores Data drops: September retail sales, September PPI, September home prices, and November consumer confidence. Wednesday, November 26 — Deere Day (Day Before Thanksgiving)DEERE & COMPANY — The agricultural equipment giant reports. Expected: 16% profit decline but 6% revenue growth. UBS says fiscal 2026 will likely be the trough before a recovery in 2027. They're forecasting $17.90 EPS this year, then a rebound to $23.20 next year (30% growth). Positive trade developments — China committed to buying U.S. soybeans, and Deere secured $3-$5B in machinery deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Bulls say the bottom is in and this is a buy. Bears say demand is falling, crop prices are weak, and the valuation doesn't make sense even in optimistic scenarios. This report will tell us if agriculture has bottomed. LI AUTO — Another Chinese EV maker reports. Data drop: September durable goods and the Fed's final beige book of the year. Thursday, November 27Thanksgiving. Markets closed. Eat turkey. Friday, November 28Black Friday. Markets close early (1 PM for stocks). No major earnings, but retail foot traffic and online sales data will start trickling in over the weekend. This kicks off the critical holiday shopping season. The Stocks Everyone's WatchingAlibaba: The China Consumer Check 5% revenue growth, 61% profit drop expected. Cloud business is strong (26% growth), and they're pushing hard on AI. If this report shows stabilizing consumer demand in China, it's bullish for Chinese tech. If it's weak, concerns about China's economy will intensify. Dell & HP: The PC Refresh Cycle Dell is riding the AI infrastructure spending. HP is more consumer-focused. Together, they'll tell us if the PC market is recovering or still struggling. Dell's data center business is the real story — AI server demand has been massive. Deere: The Ag Bottom Call Is agriculture finally bottoming? Trade deals are improving, but crop prices are weak and farm sentiment is terrible. If Deere can show that fiscal 2026 is the trough with recovery coming in 2027, the stock could run. If they guide weaker, it's a problem. Zoom: The Comeback Story? Cheap valuation (under 10x P/E ex-cash), stabilizing business, and early AI monetization. But growth is muted. Can they prove they're more than a pandemic stock? Best Buy: The Holiday Shopping Indicator This report comes right before Black Friday. If Best Buy is seeing strong demand, holiday sales could be solid. If they're weak, it sets a negative tone for retail heading into year-end. What Else Is HappeningDelayed Data: We're getting September data on Tuesday, but the Fed won't get October jobs or CPI before their December meeting. They're making policy decisions in the dark. Thanksgiving Week Trading: Thin liquidity means bigger moves on less volume. Wednesday afternoon will be dead. Friday is a half-day. Don't read too much into price action this week. Black Friday Kickoff: The holiday shopping season begins Friday. Early sales data will start giving us clues about consumer spending. Fed Beige Book: The final one of the year drops on Wednesday. It's anecdotal, but it's the best real-time economic snapshot the Fed has right now. The Bottom LineThis week is all about China and the consumer. Alibaba, NIO, and Li Auto will tell us if Chinese demand is stabilizing or deteriorating. Dell and HP will show if enterprise and consumer PC demand is real. Best Buy will preview holiday spending. And Deere will tell us if agriculture has finally hit bottom. But honestly, it's Thanksgiving week. Liquidity will be thin, trading will be light, and vibes will dominate. Don't overreact to small moves. The real action resumes next week. For now, focus on the big picture: earnings were strong this season, but the market couldn't hold its gains. That's a signal that investors are nervous despite good fundamentals. If Alibaba and the retailers show strength, that could spark a year-end rally. If they disappoint, we might be in for a rough December. Watch the reports on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, then enjoy your holiday. The market will still be here when you get back. BLACK FRIDAY - SLINGSHOT INDICATOR 60% OFF Follow the Blue Candle - 83% Average Win Probability Stop chasing moves. 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