The Consumer’s Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated VIEW IN BROWSER By Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily This year’s Black Friday was one for the record books. But that rising tide isn’t lifting all boats. A few key companies – brands you’ve no doubt heard of – have been left out of the Christmas shopping rush. That’s led to some surprising winners – and losers – that you should be aware of in navigating this new consumer economy. So for my latest interview, I sat down with Andy Swan, cofounder of LikeFolio, who’s made a name out of spotting these trends early with his proprietary Data Engine. Below, Andy breaks down the dramatic demand shift happening now, why he believes the U.S. consumer may be far stronger than Wall Street expects, and which companies are seeing the biggest demand surges in his data… Michael Salvatore: Andy, welcome back to TradeSmith Daily. It’s always great to have you. Andy Swan: Thank you, Michael, pleasure to be here. Michael: So, Black Friday 2025 just wrapped up. And the data shows it was the biggest ever. The National Retail Federation estimates more than $44 billion in online sales across the long weekend. That’s a record, and it tells us a lot about how consumers are behaving. Of course, you’re the first person I want to talk to when it comes to big consumer stories. Your Data Engine is tuned for precisely this purpose – tracking social media, web visits, search trends, and more to help your subscribers gain an edge that most investors don’t even consider. So what are your dashboards showing after the big weekend? Any specific categories of the retail space sticking out? Andy: First off, it wasn’t just a big weekend… it was a monster weekend. From our data, the big takeaway is this: The U.S. consumer is far stronger than Wall Street believes. Everyone on Wall Street has been waiting for the U.S. consumer to tap out, and it’s just not happening. The reason why, I believe, is that we’re still seeing that “K-shaped” economy play out. The upper segment of consumers is doing the heavy lifting – as the upper arm of the “K.” Meanwhile, the lower-income cohort struggles more. There’s data to support this. Moody’s Analytics recently released a report stating the top 10% of wealth in the U.S. is driving close to half of all consumer spending. So it’s no surprise the Black Friday winners this year were the high-end retail and apparel names, especially luxury beauty brands and some small-cap niche retailers. These companies cater to consumers who are still spending freely, and they’re seeing demand far above last year’s levels. Meanwhile, “uncool” brands – home improvement, department stores, and some legacy apparel – are getting left behind. The story here is simple: Shoppers want brands that feel aspirational or offer unique value. | Recommended Link | | | | This isn’t a boom where everyone wins. It’s a transfer from one group to another – like railroads (1800s) and internet (1990s). Louis Navellier, who spent 46 yrs on Wall St., built the grading system institutions paid $24,000/yr for him to evaluate stocks with. Now, his system shows exactly where the $7 trillion is flowing. And it’s not AI. XClick here for the full story. |  | | Michael: Any standout stocks from the winners list that surprised you? Andy: Two big ones. Lululemon (LULU) and On Holdings (ONON) both showed massive spikes in consumer demand over Black Friday. On’s data is particularly strong – digital demand is up more than 44% year over year, handily beating competitors like Hoka (DECK), Adidas, and Nike (NKE). 
And Lululemon, which has been left for dead by many investors – down more than 60% from its highs – is finally showing renewed strength. Men’s apparel, especially, is driving that comeback, and I think Wall Street is underestimating it. This chart of LULU’s stock price against a 7-day moving average of its web traffic tells the story. The web visits line is at a new three-year high, despite the stock price suffering: 
LULU’s strength surprised us the most of this group. There was a point this year where demand was waning, and Lululemon fell into that “uncool” category. But trends shift. The data doesn’t lie. And the burst is clear. That disconnect creates a compelling opportunity. We also saw Buy Now, Pay Later usage explode again – particularly through Affirm (AFRM). Their engagement and app activity are off the charts, thanks to stricter lending standards and big retail partnerships. Michael: OK, so that’s the upside. What about the weak spots? Andy: The biggest shocker was Costco (COST). It’s usually a value favorite, but it trailed Walmart, Target, and Amazon in our consumer momentum metrics. People are doing more digital discovery, and Costco’s model doesn’t lend itself well to online impulse buying. Check out how those stocks compare on our web visits data… TGT was up 20% while COST actually dropped 5%. 
In the “gift item” category, GoPro (GPRO) and Solo Brands (DTC) – which makes the Solo Stove – both had disappointing data. Meanwhile, premium gear brands like Yeti (YETI) and Helen of Troy (HELE) – which owns Hydro Flask – saw strong traction. It seems their consumers are skipping the big-box middlemen and going straight to the brands they want. 
Michael: But how much of this is just a short-term holiday spike vs. a real trend investors can trade on? Andy: This is much bigger than a weekend pop. This data was well above expectations and follows a strong multi-month trend of consumer resilience. When stocks are trading off their highs, but Main Street demand is accelerating, that’s a sweet spot for investors. Our Earnings Season Pass strategy just captured that in real time – we made a 102% profit in two days on a bullish American Eagle (AEO) trade after our data flagged record denim demand for Black Friday. We also saw similar wins in Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Abercrombie (ANF) – both part of that same youth-apparel strength, showing this theme has legs. Michael: Are there any earnings reports you’re watching that could turn this Black Friday data into opportunity? Andy: Definitely. Any retailer tied to high-end or experience-based spending should benefit as Q4 results roll in. Lululemon, On, Yeti, and beauty names like Ulta (ULTA) are all ones to watch. January’s going to be critical because we’ll see who really converted this consumer strength into sales. Wall Street keeps waiting for the consumer to break – but our data says the opposite. What doesn’t break this market might just make it stronger going into 2026. Michael: Great insight, Andy. Thanks for joining me today. Andy: Thanks for having me. With advanced notice from social media and consumer trends, the stocks that light up in Andy and Landon’s data never fail to surprise me. That’s why we partnered with the Swan brothers earlier this year to bring web traffic, app data, search interest, and social chatter into one simple signal within TradeSmith: the Social Heat Score. And during earnings season, these signals can contribute to some truly memorable trades – like that two-day double on AEO Andy mentioned above. By leveraging these social sentiment signals, Andy and Landon have gained a discernible edge trading earnings season for years. Across more than 500 trades in 2024, they maintained a win rate of 51.7% - just better than a coin flip – yet, even so, the average return was 16.9%. In and out within a week… for a year’s worth of stock market gains. Plus, you just heard about how well the Swan brothers have traded this earnings season, and they’re excited for the next one. Click here to learn more about the Swans’ Earnings Season Pass and get top trades for the market’s most volatile weeks. To building wealth beyond measure, 
Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily Disclosure: Michael Salvatore holds shares of Walmart (WMT) at the time of this writing. | 
Post a Comment
Post a Comment