$68 expected move. That's the whole week. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Don here... Every pundit is talking about the Christmas rally. Here's the problem. The S&P is exactly where it was on November 26th. Not approximately. Exactly. One full month of noise and narrative with zero net movement. I'm looking at a 30-day chart with a volatility box between 6800 and 6900. The market broke below it once last week. Then immediately climbed back inside. That's the entire story. In today's free session replay, you'll discover: - Why gamma risk becomes binary after prolonged channeling. Open interest builds like a snowball rolling downhill. Every day stuck in this range adds more gamma exposure for dealers. When it finally breaks, the move will be violent in one direction. Nobody can predict which way.
- The option market skew forcing one-sided trades. Bullish trades cost 40% more than bearish trades right now. That's not an opinion. That's math. When skew hits 150, you hunt discounted positions on the downside whether you're bullish or not.
- What holiday trading volume really means for price action. The S&P traded 118,000 contracts overnight. That's nothing. When volume drops this low, option order flow becomes the only signal worth watching. The futures tape becomes unreliable.
- Why three stocks drove all S&P performance this year. Nvidia up 30%. Google up 62%. Tesla up 29%. Everything else underperformed. Microsoft only 15%. Amazon only 3%. Apple 11%. You either owned those three names or you missed the move.
The real Christmas rally historically runs from December 26th through New Year's Eve. Not this week. Three and a half trading days remain with a $68 expected move. Nothing changes until the volatility box breaks. I'm positioned for it. Not predicting direction. Just waiting for the math to pay. → Watch the complete breakdown of market concentration, gamma positioning, and why the next move could be explosive To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
The Market Has a 7-Second Memory Now 0DTE options went from 5% to 60% of SPX volume since 2016. That's $1 trillion in daily notional flow — and most traders have no idea what they're doing. Markets that used to follow predictable patterns now explode without warning. 60-handle moves from nowhere. Technical analysis getting shredded by what looks like random action. It's not random. It's gamma flips, dealer hedging, and compressed timeframes creating a completely different trading environment. DON-DTE — Don Kaufman's first-ever 0DTE-only training. Tuesday, December 23rd at 1:00pm ET. A simplified framework for same-day expirations. No theory. No hype. Just process. REGISTER FOR DON-DTE Last training before 2026. Don't start the year reacting to faster markets. Helping You Become a Better Trader...it’s What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today! Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be. Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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