What Changed? |
As a dominant force since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation remains stubbornly high. It may have fallen since its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, but pressures persist with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading from September showing a 3.0% year-over-year rate of price growth. |
And that is a problem. It's well above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target. |
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This Week's Briefing |
While headline inflation has eased from its 2022 peak, core inflation remains high, with service prices a key contributor. In September, core CPI, which excludes food and energy price changes, rose 3.0% year-over-year. Its rate of price growth is on pace with headline inflation. |
The problem? Services inflation excluding energy services is much hotter. |
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the category of services less energy services saw price growth at a rate of 3.5% year-over-year (yoy). Categories within this subsection are higher still. For example: |
Gardening and lawncare services: +13.9% yoy Care of invalids and elderly at home: +11.6% yoy Delivery services: +8.0% yoy Veterinarian care: +7.8% yoy Outpatient hospital services: +6.2% yoy
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The broader services inflation first rose above 2% in April 2021 and has not sustainably returned since. |
While March 2025 finally saw the category's rate of price growth decrease to below 4%, it remains close to that level. As of September 2025, inflation sat at 3.6% yoy. Still too high for comfort. |
As per the Federal Reserve's Stephen Miran, "Core nonhousing services inflation has moved sideways this year, somewhat above the average level observed from 2002 to 2007, a useful reference period when core PCE inflation averaged 2 percent." |
With services making up close to 70% of Americans' personal consumption in 2023, high price growth in this category is an issue. Cutting interest rates while services inflation is elevated risks loosening financial conditions prematurely. This makes it a problem for the Fed, whose monetary policy is set around maintaining "inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the long run." |
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What to Watch For |
Inflation data for December will come in the form of the CPI report and the Fed's preferred gauge, the PCE report. With both for release in the new year, the services inflation numbers will be especially important. |
As it represents the final chapter of 2025's calendar year, these reports will help tell the central bank whether price growth in the area is finally cooling. Or if it's simply leveling off at an uncomfortable pace. |
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Takeaway |
Inflation in 2025 is no longer defined by its peak. It's defined by its persistence. With December's inflation data not yet out, the upcoming numbers will shape how much room the central bank has to pivot in the year ahead. |
An upside surprise in the data could further push back interest rate cuts and reinforce the Fed's cautious stance heading into 2026. |
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger |
Sources: |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/miran20251215a.pdf |
CNBC, October 2025 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/24/inflation-breakdown-september-2025-cpi-chart.html |
Trading Economics, December 2025 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-inflation |
Visual Capitalist, April 2025 https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-19-trillion-consumer-economy-in-one-chart/ |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm |
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