| It's tempting to recall an old Arabian proverb: "The dogs bark but the caravan rolls on." Consider the poster child for AI: Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA). It has generated over $187 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. Sales are up 63%. Earnings are up 65%. The company enjoys a 63% operating margin. And management is earning a mind-boggling 107% return on equity. These are hard numbers, not hype. The dot-com bubble, by contrast, was all about what "might happen." Yes, the internet changed everything - as technology bulls rightly insisted 25+ years ago. But that didn't mean equity securities could suddenly be valued based on clicks, "eyeballs," or "web hits" rather than sales and earnings. Not all internet stocks were based on hot air, of course. Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) - which made essential routers, switches, and networking equipment - became the world's most valuable company at the market peak in March 2000. Yet it was so overvalued at 200 times earnings that it only reached that level again for the first time last week. That's the price investors pay when they buy into a true mania. Nvidia - at just 43 times earnings - is not nearly as overvalued as Cisco Systems was 25 ½ years ago. I'm not saying that every AI stock is undervalued or they will all be winners. In fact, I've been saying the opposite - loudly and clearly - for months now. Capitalism is a profit-and-loss game. And there will be plenty of AI firms that flame out along the way. Yet others will create life-changing fortunes. According to McKinsey, AI could add $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy. Please note that's... per year. The AI stack - compute, chips, data centers, models, applications - isn't being built on hope. It's being built on contracts, orders, and growing cash flows. Compare that to the dot-com boom, where many firms were pre-revenue and even pre-product. That's not what's happening here. This time, there's real revenue. And real productivity gains flowing through to the bottom line. AI's global impact will drive decades of demand. Governments are using AI to improve energy grid efficiency, detect crop failures early, and streamline public healthcare. The private sector is using AI to accelerate innovation, cut costs, and increase productivity. While consumer-facing apps like ChatGPT get the headlines, the real money is in enterprise and infrastructure. And just as most companies (public or private) were ultimately helped by the internet, virtually every well-managed company - including those outside the technology sector - will benefit from the adoption of AI. That's why long-term demand will really compound. The bottom line for investors? While there are frothy valuations in some share prices, AI itself is no bubble. It represents transformational change - fueled by real demand, real use cases, and real profits. The fundamentals are solid. The economics are improving. And the opportunity set is enormous. If you're betting on up-and-coming AI companies today, you're not speculating on hype. You're investing in the backbone of the next industrial era. Just be sure to stick with companies with solid cash flow, pricing power, and competitive moats. The AI tide will lift many boats… but it won't save the leaky ones. Good investing, Alex |
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