| Ripple Effect — January 8, 2026
Stress levels in the bond market have reached an all-time low:  The U.S. high yield bond market shows record-low levels of stress (Source: The Daily Shot) Even with Japanese bonds signaling a finance crisis in global debt… investors in the U.S. “junk bond” market are still making big bets.
The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.
A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.
And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear "crack-up boom."
In 2026, we’re still tracking the “Most Terrifying Bull” thesis – the idea that stocks rally on liquidity and capital gains rather than earrings and dividend payouts.
~ Addison | It won’t involve guns or tariffs. Instead, it centers on a material China imports $1.5 billion of every year — and has no alternate source for. Trump has already hinted at what comes next, posting: “The U.S. has Monopoly positions… I have not chosen to use them — UNTIL NOW!”
On January 19th, he’s expected to move toward export restrictions on this critical material — a shift that could bring China’s semiconductor industry to a standstill. A small group of American companies are positioned to benefit massively as production is forced back onto U.S. soil. Full story here. | P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns from its holiday hiatus this afternoon at 2 P.M. ET. Our guest this week will be Matt Smith, publisher at Casey Research. Matt and co-author Doug Casey have just released a new book titled "The Preparation."
Quick hit: Since 2021, Matt has been operating a “regenerative” cattle ranch in Uruguay. The Preparation has some very strong opinions on the value of Western education and how to prepare the next generation to participate in a strong, thriving economy.  If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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