Earnings Report Card:
How's It Looking So Far? Dear Reader,
It’s another earnings Friday at What My System Says Today.
While we are still very early in the Q4 2025 reporting season, it’s a good time to check in and see where things stand with companies on the S&P 500.
It might surprise you where things stand…  Around 13% of companies in the benchmark index have reported earnings so far. Of those companies, 75% have reported earnings per share above estimates.
Surprisingly, that is actually below the 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%.
Companies are reporting earnings 5.3% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 7.7% and the 10-year average of 7%.
So, both the number of companies reporting positive earnings and the magnitude of earnings surprises are below short and long-term averages.
Pulling back, the blended earnings growth rate for the benchmark is 8.2%. If that stands, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500.
Again, remember that we are still very early in the earnings season, so these figures are likely to change.
Now, before I get into “bullish” and “bearish” earnings for next week, I want to revisit an earnings call I made last week. META Leads Mixed Tech Earnings Last week, our screener found that Meta Platforms Inc. (META) was on track to increase its EPS by $7.12 quarter over quarter.
I mentioned that the rise in expectations was driven by growth fueled by advertising and artificial intelligence.
I also noted that META has issued earnings beats in four of the last five quarters.
Well, you can make it five of the last six as the company reported EPS of $8.88 on revenue of $59.9 billion.
Both figures were well ahead of analysts’ estimates of $8.17 on $58.4 billion.
As a result, META shares were up more than 8% during midday trading yesterday.
It was a big, bright spot in tech earnings as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) reported an expected decline in revenue from its Azure cloud service. That was fuel for a 12% drop in MSFT during yesterday’s session.
Now, let’s examine potentially “bullish” earnings for next week. | With so many strange events happening across the economy (consumer confidence plummeting, credit-card delinquencies soaring, and more), it's no wonder the richest investors are loading up on gold. But what you might not realize is that there's a much better way to profit from rising gold prices - WITHOUT ever touching an ETF, mining stock, or even bullion. Get the full details here. | “Bullish” Earnings to Watch These stocks are expected to beat their previous quarter’s earnings per share (EPS), and thus, if those expectations are met or exceeded, they could potentially trade higher.
For this screen, stocks must meet four criteria: - 10 or more analysts cover the stock.
- The average analyst recommendation is a “Buy.”
- It BEAT analysts’ EPS estimates for the previous quarter.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter's EPS is greater than the previous one.
Here are 10 companies that made this week’s list:  It’s not necessarily surprising, but it is interesting to see QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) on the list for next week.
Analysts project an EPS of $3.39, compared to the previous quarter’s earnings of -$2.89 for the semiconductor company.
During the previous quarter, the company reported a 10% increase in total earnings; however, it has since expanded its product line to include AI data centers and advanced robotics.
Qualcomm has issued earnings and revenue beats in each of the last five quarters, and I see no reason why it won’t happen again.
The company has already inked agreements with automotive manufacturers like Volkswagen and Hyundai, while its new Snapdragon X2 chip is touted to deliver multi-day battery life, fast performance and advanced AI capabilities.
There’s a solid chance that another earnings beat for Qualcomm will elevate the stock out of the “bearish” zone of Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system.
Now, let’s look at potentially “bearish” earnings for next week… “Bearish” Earnings to Watch For our “bearish” earnings screen, we’re only looking for two things: - 10 or more analysts must cover the stock.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter's EPS is less than the previous quarter's.
We want companies that are covered by a sufficiently large group of Wall Street analysts who collectively expect the company to report a quarter-over-quarter decline in earnings.
Here are 10 companies that passed this screen:  Oil and gas companies have taken a bit of a beating of late due to recent slumping commodity prices.
That’s why it’s not really a surprise to see Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) on the list here.
I think Marathon will beat analysts’ expectations of $2.72 per share, but not by much.
The price of oil has been down of late, cutting into earnings for every oil and gas company that drills, transports or refines crude oil.
It’s not really a time to panic if you are Marathon (or any other oil major for that matter), but if oil prices don’t come up significantly, this could be a trend to watch out for.
That’s all from me today.
I hope you all have a great weekend.
Until next week…
Safe trading, 
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Research Analyst, What My System Says Today
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