Don here...
Market makers price every option using exact probability models.
They know the odds on your trade before you even place it.
Most retail traders are guessing while the machines are calculating.
That gap is about to get more expensive.
Nasdaq just announced Monday, Wednesday, and Friday expirations for Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft starting January 26th.
More expirations means more opportunities to either profit from probability edges or get chopped up by them.
I'm teaching how to flip that equation right now.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why understanding expected moves changes everything. When billions trade on a $3.82 expected move, that number gets enforced. Knowing the range before the day starts puts you on the same side as the institutions.
- The risk versus reward math that actually matters. Upside to 7200 looks possible. Downside to 6200 is equally plausible. That's not balanced risk. That's a setup you need to understand before allocating capital.
- How overnight volume exposes conviction. Thursday's futures were up 47 handles on 200,000 contracts. Night before was 360,000. The reversal came fast because there was no real buying behind the move.
- Why this compressed range is more dangerous than it looks. We've been stuck between 6850 and 6950 since October. Every day adds more gamma to the same strikes. When it breaks, it breaks hard.
Session two of my probabilities education series continues today. Expected moves, implied volatility, risk profiling. The framework professionals use to see what retail traders miss.
With more expiration cycles coming to the biggest names in the market, this education isn't optional anymore. It's survival.
→ Watch the complete session on probability-based trading and why the new expirations make this critical
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
P.S. Want to learn how professionals actually navigate this environment? The 3 Trade Micro-Challenge lets you name your own price for 30 days. Real alerts, live sessions, and education that matters.
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