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The One Metric Bulls Watch in Palantir Before Earnings
Authored by Chris Markoch. First Published: 1/21/2026.
Summary
- Rising institutional ownership in Palantir stock signals growing confidence despite valuation concerns.
- Strong earnings growth and improving analyst price targets suggest PLTR stock could outperform the broader market, even as growth rates normalize.
- Technical indicators point to short-term caution ahead of earnings, but long-term sentiment remains bullish as institutions continue accumulating shares.
When many investors talk about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), they point to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio north of 550x and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 142x. Those metrics feed the narrative that PLTR stock is overvalued. But there's another important figure that tells a different story.
That figure is institutional ownership — a dynamic measure based on shares outstanding and the number of shares institutions hold. Both components change daily, though reported data is typically updated monthly.
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For example, MarketBeat shows institutional ownership of PLTR at about 45.65% — essentially half the float. Other sources report roughly 52% or even as high as 56%.
Importantly, institutional ownership has jumped sharply over the past 12 months, with buyers outweighing sellers by a wide margin. Part of that buying stems from Palantir's recent inclusion in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100.
But index inclusion isn't the whole story. Palantir's stronger-than-expected earnings have also helped convince institutions that the company deserves a meaningful allocation in their portfolios within the evolving technology sector.
Growth Is Slowing, But Still Strong
One criticism of PLTR's lofty valuation is that much future growth may already be priced in. Palantir reports earnings on Feb. 2, and analysts expect earnings per share of $0.23 on revenue of $1.34 billion — roughly 90% and 61% year-over-year increases, respectively.
Estimates for the following 12 months show growth moderating to about 39% for EPS and 33% for revenue. Those rates are slower but still robust, which helps explain the "growth is priced in" argument.
That's why institutional buying is worth watching: it implies professional investors expect PLTR to outperform the broader market, and they're positioning accordingly.
The so-called whisper number also points to upside, suggesting Palantir could report earnings of $0.27 per share — about 17% above the consensus estimate.
Consensus Price Target Has Been a Reliable Signal
As institutions have accumulated PLTR, the consensus price target has moved materially higher. A year ago the consensus target was about $43.78, implying roughly a 39% downside at that time.
That downside never materialized. Instead, the stock has risen more than 134% over the past 12 months. Today the consensus price target sits at $175.88, implying an upside of nearly 4% from current levels.
Analyst sentiment on MarketBeat has trended bullish. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) upgraded PLTR from Neutral to Buy and lifted its price target to $235 from $210. Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE: TFC) initiated coverage with a Buy and a $223 target.
Those targets imply potential price gains of more than 30% over the next 12 months — a return that, if realized, would likely outpace the broader market and could reinforce further institutional buying.
PLTR Chart Suggests Caution Before Earnings
At the close on Jan. 20, PLTR slipped slightly below its 150-day simple moving average (SMA) near $169. The 150-day SMA had acted as support since mid-November, so a breach raises concerns that the near-term momentum — the stock is down about 4.8% in the first weeks of 2026 — could continue into the earnings release.
The stock remains below its November all-time high, and buyers have not consistently defended prior resistance-turned-support levels. That pattern suggests investors are taking a more cautious stance rather than aggressively accumulating ahead of the report. Volume on the stock's recent down days has been moderate, which supports that interpretation.
If PLTR falls decisively below the 150-day SMA, the next potential support is around $152. The MACD line sits below its signal line and near the zero axis, indicating waning upside momentum and a mildly bearish short-term bias ahead of earnings.
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