| Swan Dive — January 21, 2026 Addison Wiggin After watching the President’s speech in Davos this morning, we turned to the South China Morning Post, hoping for a sober assessment of President Trump’s approach to geopolitics, Russia, China, and Greenland.
Maybe some turn of phrase… or an angle… something, we hadn’t considered.
Heh.
Fat chance.
Instead, we found a breathless recounting of a 70-minute speech described as “rambling and incendiary.”
Their write-up offered little analysis, opting instead for a running commentary that focused on tone over substance. What they missed, and what much of the global press continues to miss, is that beneath the performative bluster lies a pattern—one that's consistent, strategic, and calculated.
Below, we share Trump’s playbook as detailed by Adam Kobeissi. Mr. Kobeissi outlines the Trump tariff strategy in a way that – even if he’s 100% wrong – at least gives some context for what the President is trying to accomplish.
The trouble with today’s media – globally, apparently – is that it’s entirely thoughtless.
Legions of journalism, communications and political science majors regurgitate each other's banal, quotidien mundanity so thoughtlessly… it’s mind-numbing and less than helpful.
Sure, Trump's address included sharp rebukes of NATO, a call to acquire Greenland for national security, boasts about U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence, and a nostalgic defense of Operation Warp Speed. He praised Chinese President Xi Jinping, insisted U.S. cities would soon be crime-free, and dismissed Swiss economic contributions while praising their watches.
But when he said, “All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland,” the press rolled their eyes. They missed the serious undercurrent: that the U.S. may no longer need military occupation to exert imperial influence.
That’s what this moment demands us to understand: not the sound and fury of a Trump speech, but the pattern that underpins it. It is a strategy built not on diplomacy or doctrine, but on pressure.
And a lot of bluster.
We can’t help but laugh out loud most of the time we hear him speak. He’s more like a stand-up comedian, in our view, than a serious statesman.
And so, the Davos speech was not a deviation. Trump will not send troops to Greenland. He will send tariffs. He will send capital pressure. He will send market fear.
Because what the press still fails to acknowledge is this: Greenland is not a joke.
The island contains rare-earth minerals, uranium, precious metals, and vast stores of fresh water. It is geographically critical—a potential keystone for missile defense systems targeting Russian and Chinese ICBMs.  (Source: Michael Burry on Substack) As missile trajectories from those countries reach their apogee, they fly near or over Greenland. That’s where they’re slowest, most vulnerable to interception. It's a strategic linchpin in the architecture of American deterrence.
Trump knows it. The Pentagon knows it. The press couldn't care less. 📉 Markets Did Their Best “Gollum Impression” (Morning Brew) Yesterday, before the press began fumbling with metaphors for the orange grump, the markets had a full-blown tantrum.
The Dow dropped nearly 900 points. The S&P 500 recorded its worst day since October. Nvidia led the tech retreat. European stocks sagged. Bitcoin lost altitude. The VIX surged past 20.
The headlines mostly pointed fingers at Trump’s Greenland ambitions and tariff threats.
But the real trigger was halfway around from Davos.
In press conferences ahead of Trump’s arrival in Switzerland, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent broke the silence with clarity: the market chaos stemmed from Tokyo.
Over the weekend, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election and proposed cutting the food tax to zero — without providing a funding mechanism.  That was enough to spook Japan’s bond market.
Yields exploded:
The 10-year JGB yield surged to 2.38%, the highest since 1999.
The 40-year yield climbed to a record 4.21%.
Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys.
When their domestic yields spike, Japanese capital returns home. That means selling U.S. assets: stocks, bonds, ETFs. That selling pressure cascaded through the global financial system.
This mechanism isn’t new.
It happened in August 2024, when the Bank of Japan hiked rates. The carry trade unwound. Nasdaq dropped 3.4% in a day. Bitcoin fell 17%.
Yesterday, the fiscal shocks proved stickier. You can reverse a rate hike. You can’t walk back an election promise overnight.
But across the globe, the press mindlessly blamed Trump and his comments on Greenland.
So… what do the Russians and Chinese actually think about Trump’s narrative regarding Greenland? It’s hard to know from a global press corps that has willingly donned TDS blinders. 🌿 Kobeissi’s Tariff Playbook In 2025, the Kobeissi Letter’s investment strategy nearly doubled the S&P 500's return, largely because they were early to capitalize on swings in asset prices during Trump’s trade war.
Below, we reprint their Trump Tariff Playbook as it appears on their X page for no other reasons than those stated above: Even if Kobeissi is wrong, the playbook is 1000 times better analysis than pages, reams, and hours of incoherently similar headlines and analysis you might be confronted with online.
Oof.  - On Friday, President Trump posted a cryptic message signaling tariffs on a specific country or sector. Markets drift lower as uncertainty rises. This began on Friday when Trump threatened tariffs on Denmark.
- Later that same day, or shortly after (in this case on Saturday), President Trump announces a large new tariff, often 25%+.
- On Saturday and Sunday, President Trump repeatedly doubled down on tariff threats to apply pressure while markets were closed, maximizing the psychological impact.
- Over the weekend, the countries targeted by the new tariffs typically responded publicly or signaled a willingness to negotiate.
- On Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, when futures reopen (in this case on Monday night), stock market futures drop in an initial emotional reaction to the tariff headlines.
- On Monday and Tuesday, President Trump continues to publicly apply pressure, but investors begin to recognize that the tariffs are not yet in effect and are still scheduled to take effect weeks later, such as February 1.
- By Wednesday of that same week, dip buyers step in and spark a relief rally, but this move often fades and leads to another push lower. This is typically where smart money begins buying.
- On the following weekend, roughly one week later, President Trump posts that discussions are underway and that he is working toward a solution with leaders of the countries targeted by the tariffs.
- On Sunday evening of that weekend at 6 p.m. ET, futures open sharply higher as optimism returns, but gains fade into the Monday cash market open.
- After the Monday open, senior administration officials such as Treasury Secretary Bessent, appear on live television to reassure investors and emphasize progress toward a deal.
- Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration will continue to tease progress toward a trade agreement.
- A trade deal is announced, and markets hit new record highs
- Repeat from step #1
Note from Kobeissi: This time around, President Trump's plan to acquire Greenland is undoubtedly a bigger ask than China's mere scaling back of some export controls. Therefore, the playbook may be more drawn-out, but it will follow a similar sequence of events.
We also agree with their advice: you must watch the bond market. The bond market has been the ultimate indicator for a potential tariff "pause" as we saw since April 2025, just days after "Liberation Day." What the financial media like to call the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade.
In any case, markets are all back in positive territory today. Continued Below...
One of America’s top economists is calling it “The Great Divergence.”
And when this $80 trillion-dollar bubble "bursts" — it could be as soon as next month — millions of hard-working Americans could see a large chunk of their wealth wiped out overnight.
Yet some savvy individuals have discovered a simple way to shield their wealth, and possibly rake in years' worth of gains — in just months.
Details here.
💰 A World Hedging Its Bets While the press obsesses over style, central banks and sovereign wealth funds continue to rewrite the global monetary infrastructure. Gold surged to $4,848 an ounce. Silver gave back a couple of bucks but still sits at a historic $93 today.
Russia, according to Bloomberg, has made over $216 billion from gold since the start of its full-scale war in Ukraine — almost exactly the amount frozen in European financial sanctions.  The quiet exit from the global reserve status of the U.S. dollar – the shift we chronicled in Demise of the Dollar two decades ago – continues.
The BRICS are not confronting the U.S. directly. They’re happy to watch the press criticize the president for every move, idea, action, feint… then hedge against it. They accumulate gold, sign bilateral trade deals, and create parallel financial systems. Outside the West, it’s not collapse but erosion.
Even European allies are losing patience. Denmark’s AkademikerPension announced plans to divest $100 million in U.S. Treasurys, citing long-term credit concerns. 🧠 The Last Monolith Crumbles As if to put a point on the whole fascination and/or disgust with Donald Trump. Grey Swan senior contributor John Robb reminds us of the tectonic shift in consumer behavior: for the first time in the nation’s history, the top 10% now drive nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending.  Robb warns, “this is more than an inequality statistic, it’s a pivotal sign of political and economic power,” and Trump’s bargaining chip in the global realignment game he’s been playing… which he had 4 years to reimagine before returning to office.
America’s postwar dream was built on a broad middle class, anchored by land and home ownership. Ownership in both has declined precipitously.
And with it, the shared stake in the American experiment.
What replaces it is a high-consumption, low-population elite whose incentives no longer align with those of the broader republic?
That’s the deeper story Trump embodies, even if unintentionally: a system where volatility is intentionally part of governance, and the new ruling class doesn't need consensus—just capital.
So what do you do about your money? That’s what we’ve founded this fraternity to find out.
~ Addison
P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:
First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.
They both are in sharp contrast to Trump's foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.
This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.
We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.  Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.  Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can: - Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
- Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
- Shield your personal finances from trading risk.
Stay tuned for more details on how to join us on Friday at 1 p.m. ET. If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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