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Behind the Markets
Red Screens, Green Future: 2 Ways to Buy the Nuclear Sector Dip
Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 12/30/2025.
Article Highlights
- Artificial intelligence data centers are driving unprecedented demand for reliable, clean baseload energy that only nuclear power can reliably supply.
- NuScale Power continues to solidify its leadership position through strategic utility partnerships and the commercialization of its regulator-approved design.
- Oklo is advancing physically with site preparation while maintaining a robust balance sheet to support its unique business model of selling power to end users.
If you’re checking your portfolio at the end of December and you hold advanced nuclear names, the view can look ugly. The industry, a darling of the 2025 market, is flashing red warnings as the year ends.
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) has slid 36% in the past three months. NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) has taken an even steeper hit, down nearly 62% in the same period. For investors who bought into the nuclear renaissance narrative earlier this year, those declines might feel like a signal to exit.
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Successful investing requires separating price action from business value. The recent chart meltdown does not match the physical progress occurring at construction sites in Idaho or in engineering offices in Oregon. The fundamental drivers that pushed these stocks higher—most notably the massive energy needs of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers—have not disappeared overnight.
What we are witnessing instead is a seasonal market phenomenon that has temporarily detached prices from fundamentals. For opportunistic investors, that disconnect offers a chance to acquire high-growth assets at a discount as the new year begins.
The Silent Catalyst: Tax-Loss Harvesting
At this point in the year the calendar can matter as much as the balance sheet. In the final trading days of December, tax-driven flows often dominate—especially in volatile, high-beta names that ran hard earlier and then snapped back.
2025 was volatile. While many sectors soared, specific stocks saw extreme swings. Oklo is a prime example: the stock experienced a speculative surge in October, reaching nearly $193 per share, then corrected to the $70–$80 range. Investors who bought near those highs are sitting on unrealized losses.
By selling those shares before year-end, investors can realize losses to offset capital gains they might owe from profitable investments in the semiconductor market or AI tech stocks.
While the intense selling pressure can be alarming, it likely reflects year-end tax deadlines—not failed reactors or broken contracts.
Historical evidence suggests this effect often reverses once the new tax year begins. Artificial selling floods the market in December, depressing prices, only to dry up in January and allow the stock to find its true floor.
Safety in Numbers: NuScale’s 6 GW Pipeline
While tax-loss selling affects the entire sector, NuScale Power offers a clearer value proposition for risk-averse investors.
In a market filled with paper reactors that exist only in simulations, NuScale is the only Small Modular Reactor (SMR) manufacturer with a design fully approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
The drop in NuScale’s share price seems to ignore the commercial progress the company made late this year.
The most significant development is the program involving its exclusive partner, ENTRA1 Energy, and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Together they are targeting deployment of up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of SMR capacity.
To put 6 GW into perspective:
- It is roughly equivalent to the output of six large traditional nuclear plants.
- It is enough power to support widespread industrial decarbonization or massive data center campuses.
Financially, NuScale is maturing. The company has moved from a research-and-development outfit to a revenue-generating entity. Throughout 2025 revenue rose, driven mainly by engineering services for the RoPower project in Romania. The company is not running on fumes; it ended the third quarter of 2025 with roughly $753.8 million in cash and investments. That liquidity provides the runway needed to execute large-scale utility deals. Investors selling today are effectively discarding one of the most regulatorily advanced companies in the Western Hemisphere at a discount.
From PowerPoint to Powerhouse: Oklo’s Physical Progress
Oklo requires a different analysis because it operates on a different business model. While NuScale sells the razor—the reactor—Oklo plans to sell the shave: the electricity.
This Power-as-a-Service model resembles a utility: Oklo builds, owns and operates plants, selling power directly to end users such as data centers. That model can deliver higher long-term margins but requires significant upfront capital.
Market anxiety about regulatory timelines often clouds judgment. Critics point to delays in the NRC’s Part 53 framework and new rules for advanced reactors as a reason to sell. But that overlooks two important facts.
The Dirt Is Moving
Despite the paperwork hurdles, Oklo has moved from design to execution. Construction and site preparation have begun at the Aurora powerhouse site in Idaho. For investors, excavators in the ground are a major de-risking event: the project is transitioning from concept to physical asset.
The Financial Fortress
Building power plants is expensive, but Oklo is prepared. The company holds approximately $1.2 billion in cash and marketable securities.
That matters: many high-growth companies fail because they run out of money while waiting for permits. Oklo’s cash pile means it can weather regulatory delays without diluting shareholders to raise emergency funds.
The drop in Oklo’s stock price over the past three months essentially discounts this cash position. The company has the capital to survive the wait and the capability to build the plant. The disconnect between share price and balance sheet suggests the sell-off is overextended.
The AI Energy Crunch: Smart Money vs. Fast Money
Strip away daily volatility and tax-season selling, and the macro picture for 2026 looks bullish. The world faces an acute AI energy crunch. Tech giants are a new class of energy buyers: they need gigawatts of power, available 24/7 and carbon-free to meet climate pledges.
Wind and solar are intermittent and cannot reliably power server farms overnight without prohibitively expensive battery backups. Nuclear power is the only scalable, always-on solution. The easy-money phase of the hype cycle—when speculative capital chased any nuclear name—is over. We are entering an accumulation phase, where disciplined investors look for companies with real contracts, real cash and real regulatory progress, and begin buying the dips.
The pullback in Oklo and NuScale is uncomfortable, but it acts as a filter. It shakes out short-term traders and creates opportunity for long-term investors. These corrections are not signs of failure; they are an invitation to buy the future of energy at late-2025 prices, just before the 2026 demand curve accelerates.
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