Trump's Greenland Strategy Is Part of the New Arctic Power Struggle “Russia is building an Arctic army. Six new military bases are being constructed and several mothballed Cold War installations are reopening. A force of at least 6,000 combat soldiers is being readied.”
— Tim Marshall  The Arctic has become the new battleground for the U.S., Europe, and its adversaries January 21, 2026 — Seven hundred billion dollars. That’s the figure being floated as the potential price tag for acquiring Greenland, according to recent reporting.
Call me skeptical, but I don’t think anyone’s cutting a $700 billion check anytime soon. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than half of the Defense Department’s entire 2024 budget.
Public opinion isn’t exactly lining up behind the idea, either, despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that “anything less than [the complete U.S. control of Greenland] is unacceptable.”  Americans are telling pollsters they don’t support the idea, whether peacefully or otherwise. A recent YouGov survey showed that only 13% of Americans are in favor of paying Greenland’s residents to join the U.S., while an even smaller share—just 8%—support taking the island by force.
Greenlanders are likewise not warm to the idea, as the overwhelming majority don’t want to leave the Danish realm. Europe, especially Denmark, is firmly opposed.
But dismissing Greenland entirely would, I think, be a mistake. Why Greenland Matters, Even If No One Buys It Sitting between North America, Europe and Russia, Greenland is home to the Pituffik Space Base, where the U.S. Space Force tracks anything that might come flying over the North Pole.
That role has become more important as Arctic ice continues to retreat. Satellite imagery shows summer Arctic sea ice shrinking over 12% per decade, or 33% since 1984, opening new shipping lanes and creating new military and commercial realities.
As I shared with you last year, the Arctic is becoming more navigable and investable.  Denmark understands this. The Kingdom just committed more than $4 billion to Arctic and North Atlantic defense through 2033, in coordination with fellow NATO members. Danish and allied aircraft, naval vessels and ground units are expanding their presence on and around the island. Exercises include guarding critical infrastructure and operating fighter aircraft in Arctic conditions. Meanwhile, Denmark’s Chief of the Army Command, Peter Boysen, is talking about boots on the ground. The Harsh Realties of Developing Greenland And then there’s the minerals. Greenland is rich in iron ore, copper, zinc, graphite, tungsten and more.
But what really captures headlines are rare earth elements (REEs), the materials that power everything from fighter jets to smartphones to missile guidance systems. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Greenland ranks eighth globally in proven rare earths, with the potential to move even higher as exploration advances.  That looks incredibly attractive from a mining company’s point of view. But in practice, development would be slow and capital-intensive.
Greenland is three times the size of Texas and yet, unbelievably, has fewer than 100 miles of road, none of which connects two towns together. Energy infrastructure is limited. Transport costs are high. Many deposits are co-located with uranium, which Greenland banned from mining in 2021 after local opposition.
In this respect, it’s helpful to compare Greenland to Venezuela. Both are being treated as instant windfalls waiting to be unlocked—rare earths in the former and oil in the latter—but the truth is that they’ll require billions in capital and long timelines to develop. According to Wood Mackenzie, just 25 hydrocarbon exploration wells have even been drilled in Greenland—all of them unsuccessful.
Neither region, then, should be seen as a get-rich-quick story. China Has Tried to Operate in Greenland… but Failed China understand Greenland’s strategic and resource value as well as anyone. Over the past decade, Beijing has tried to gain a foothold through airport construction, infrastructure projects, scientific research and other means.
Nearly all of these efforts have been blocked—either by Denmark or the U.S.—on national security grounds.
In 2016, for instance, a Chinese mining company’s attempt to buy an abandoned, U.S. naval base in Greenland was thwarted. Two years later, the state-run Chinese Communication Construction Company (CCCC) sought to be awarded the bid to expand a set of airports, a job that would cost $550 million, but the then-Secretary of Defense James Mattis managed to convince Denmark to pull the contract. So Why Does Trump Want It? Having said all that, why does President Trump want Greenland so badly (other than as retribution for not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize)?
He insists it’s for national security, but, as I mentioned earlier, the U.S. military already has broad access to the island, as spelled out in the 1951 agreement signed by the U.S. and Denmark. Further, Greenland is under the protection of NATO, of which the U.S. is a member. If Russia or China tried to attack it, Article 5 of the treaty would be triggered, activating NATO forces.
Recent reporting suggests that some of Trump’s wealthiest backers see Greenland not as a military outpost or mining play, but as a blank slate. According to Reuters, influential tech investors—including Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen—have pitched the idea of turning parts of Greenland into a so-called “freedom city,” offering a low-regulation, quasi-autonomous hub for next-gen technologies.
Another explanation? Trump’s reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine, which the White House has dubbed the “Trump Corollary” or “Donroe” Doctrine. As stated in the president’s December 2 proclamation, the “American people—not foreign nations nor globalist institutions—will always control their own destiny” in the Western Hemisphere.
Denmark, notably, sits in the Eastern Hemisphere. Japan’s Gold Reserves at a New Record On a final note, central banks across the globe continue to stack gold to support their currency and diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
Emerging markets have led purchases over the past decade, but some high-income countries have also participated. The Kobeissi Letter reports that Japan’s gold reserves rose to a new all-time high in 2025. Reserves stood at $120 billion, an impressive 60% increase from a year earlier.  Japan currently has the world’s ninth-largest gold reserves, excluding the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to World Gold Council (WGC) data.
As I’ve pointed out before, these massive institutions clearly understand the importance of having exposure to hard assets such as gold. That’s why I still recommend a 10% weighting in gold, split equally between physical bullion and high-quality gold mining names. Don’t forget to rebalance on an annual basis.
Regards,
Frank Holmes
U.S. Global Investors & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity Continued Below... | According to Brad Thomas, the most important income story in America isn't happening on Wall Street... It's being created from ordinary-looking buildings popping up all across America. Most people drive past these sites without realizing some of them are paying out up to $68 billion a year in federally mandated income... money that must be paid out no matter what happens in the market. Click here to discover how to claim your share. | P.S. We’ve got another Grey Swan Live! two-fer for you this week:
First up, it’s a tale of two “M’s” … Mamdani vs. Milei. If you listen to Milei’s address to the WEF in 2024 and Mamdani’s inaugural address from this year, you’ll be blown away.
They both are in sharp contrast to Trump's foreign policy and approach to state capitalism.
This week, we called up Joel Bowman — our “man on the scene” in Buenos Aires since before President Milei got elected.
We’ll get his take on Milei and Mamdani and a primer on Investing At the End of the World.  Then on Friday — because it’s not just about what we trade, but how we trade — we’re hosting a special presentation on how to stop overpaying the IRS in 2026.  Our guest Nick Buhelos is going to walk us through simple steps on how you can: - Unlock 250+ deductions you currently can’t access.
- Apply trading losses to other income (W2, 1099, even your spouse’s).
- Shield your personal finances from trading risk.
Stay tuned for more details on how to join us on Friday at 1 p.m. ET.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.  (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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