Last week's market action was not a headline-driven bounce. It was a rotation. |
Capital moved deliberately into a small number of themes tied to real demand cycles, durable cash flows, and forward visibility. What makes this week different is not just where money went, but who was already positioned there. |
Across several of the strongest rotation themes, insiders accumulated shares weeks before price broke out. In multiple cases, price has now moved sharply in confirmation. |
This report highlights where rotation and insider behavior are aligned, where momentum is unsupported, and how to position next. |
Primary rotation themes this week: |
Breakthrough biotech and precision medicine
Real assets and metallurgical supply chains
Defense and government IT services
AI infrastructure and industrial buildout
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Theme 1: Breakthrough Biotech and Precision Medicine |
Rotation Status: Strong |
Insider Alignment: Very Strong and Early |
This was not a speculative biotech bounce. It was a repricing. |
Capital rotated into select healthcare innovation names where pipelines, timelines, and balance sheets offered asymmetric upside. The clearest insider confirmation within this theme is ALMS. |
Anchor Name: ALMS (Alumis Inc.) |
In early December 2025, insiders accumulated aggressively while price was still depressed. |
Multiple open-market cash purchases by Director Srinivas Akkaraju
Over $2 million deployed across several transactions
Largest disclosed buy included 96,000 shares around $7.55
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Since insiders began buying in early December, ALMS has surged more than 100 percent, including a sharp acceleration last week. |
This is the cleanest insider sequence we track: |
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Additional healthcare names participating in the rotation include HTFL and QDEL, though insider confirmation is strongest in ALMS. |
What to do next: |
Treat ALMS as a leader, not a chase. Look for consolidation or controlled pullbacks.
Continue monitoring insider activity across adjacent autoimmune and precision medicine names for early confirmation.
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Theme 2: Real Assets and Metallurgical Supply Chains |
Rotation Status: Strong |
Insider Alignment: Exceptional Conviction |
The market rotated into real assets with pricing power and supply constraints. The insider activity here was not subtle. |
Anchor Name: AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources) |
In early to mid December 2025, insiders deployed career-level capital. |
Director Kenneth Courtis purchased approximately 37,000 shares across multiple transactions
Total capital deployed was roughly $6.7 million
On December 15, a 10 percent owner and director added another ~$7.3 million
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Total insider capital deployed exceeded $14 million, all via open-market cash purchases. |
Since those buys, AMR has rallied roughly 20 percent, confirming that insiders positioned ahead of the rotation. |
This activity aligns with confidence in metallurgical coal demand, shipment guidance, and pricing durability. |
What to do next: |
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Theme 3: Defense and Government IT Services |
Rotation Status: Improving |
Insider Alignment: Coordinated Executive Confirmation |
This rotation is about visibility, not speculation. |
Capital rotated into defense and government IT services where backlog, contracts, and funding cycles remain intact regardless of macro noise. |
Anchor Name: SAIC (Science Applications International) |
Insider behavior here is notable for its coordination, not size. |
December 16, 2025:
December 31, 2025:
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These were modest in dollar terms but important in signal quality. Multiple senior executives buying together matters. |
Since mid December, SAIC has gained approximately 12 to 13 percent, confirming insider timing. |
This is classic institutional alignment behavior in defense services names. |
What to do next: |
Favor continuation setups and shallow pullbacks.
Use insider coordination as a confirmation signal, not a trigger by itself.
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Theme 4: AI Infrastructure and Industrial Buildout |
Rotation Status: Ongoing |
Insider Alignment: Mixed but Improving |
The AI trade did not disappear. It narrowed. |
Capital rotated away from speculative applications and toward physical infrastructure, manufacturing enablement, and data center buildout. |
Key names participating include LRCX, ENTG, BE, and PSN. |
Insider activity here is not as concentrated as in biotech or materials, but institutional sponsorship remains strong. This is a theme driven more by capex cycles than insider conviction. |
What to do next: |
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Secondary Rotation: Consumer Resilience |
Insider Alignment: Weak |
Representative Name: VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide) |
Consumer discretionary names participated selectively, but insider confirmation is limited. |
No meaningful insider buying during early December
One small January 2026 EVP purchase
Prior director buys occurred in November
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Since late November, VAC has gained roughly 10 to 15 percent, but insider activity does not reinforce the move. |
Interpretation: Momentum-driven, not insider-led. |
What to do next: |
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Rotation Summary Table |
Highest conviction rotation with insider alignment:
ALMS, AMR, SAIC
Rotation with weak or no insider confirmation:
VAC, select consumer and speculative momentum names
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Forward Outlook |
This was a confirmation week. |
Capital rotated into sectors tied to real demand, and in several cases insiders were already positioned before price moved. That alignment is rare and meaningful. |
Going forward, our focus remains simple: |
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As new rotations develop, insider behavior will remain a core confirmation tool in separating durable trends from short-lived trades. |
Watch List |
OGN (Organon)
Healthcare rotation, defensive cash flow profile
Recent insider buying with price still near insider cost
This is a classic delayed confirmation setup if healthcare strength broadens |
SMMT (Summit Therapeutics)
Biotech innovation exposure
Insiders bought before momentum expanded elsewhere in the sector
Price has not meaningfully moved away from insider levels yet |
BAH (Booz Allen Hamilton)
Defense and government services alignment
Insider buying present while price remains relatively contained
Fits the same institutional lane as SAIC but earlier in price response |
TREX (Trex)
Industrial and housing-adjacent buildout exposure
Insiders accumulated while price was basing
Still trading close to insider cost rather than extended momentum |
AUR (Aurora Innovation)
Autonomy and infrastructure optionality
Recent insider buying with price still near entry levels
High asymmetry if infrastructure and automation themes continue to firm |
What Comes Next |
I will be digging further into these names, tracking price behavior, volume, and any additional insider activity. |
If one of these setups reaches a point where risk and reward are clearly defined, paid members will receive a dedicated alert outlining: |
Why the setup is actionable
What changed to confirm the opportunity
How I would think about positioning and risk
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This watch list is available to subscribers only. |
Actionable selections and alerts are reserved for paid members. |
If you want access to those alerts and the full Insider-aligned rotation process, the paid version is where that happens. |
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