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Special Report Broadcom's Margin Warning Spooked Wall Street—But Cash Flow Could Still WinWritten by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 12/26/2025. 
Key Points - Markets have crushed Broadcom's shares since the firm reported earnings on Dec. 11.
- Forecasts regarding gross margin pressure are driving serious concerns.
- Broadcom's proven track record outweighs the uncertainty many investors are feeling, supporting the stock's positive outlook.
Investors are feeling more uncertainty about semiconductor giant Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) than they have in quite a while. Shares are down nearly 14% since Broadcom reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Dec. 11. While President Trump's official salary is $400,000 per year... his tax returns reveal he's been collecting up to $250,000 PER MONTH from one hidden source. Until recently, most Americans couldn't touch the type of investment that makes up this investment. But thanks to Executive Order 14330, that just changed. If you love investing in disruptive new companies... Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >> The post-earnings sell-off centers on one question: will the company's fast-growing AI "system" revenue dilute margins—or still expand operating profit and free cash flow? The answer could determine whether the decline is a short-term sentiment hit or a broader reassessment of Broadcom's longer-term earnings power. Gross Margin Concerns Weigh on AVGO Stock The primary issue weighing on Broadcom shares after the report was management's guidance on gross margins. For the next quarter, Broadcom expects gross margin to fall 100 basis points due to a higher mix of artificial intelligence (AI) revenue. After a 78% gross margin last quarter, management signaled margins may continue to trend lower through 2026 as AI system shipments increase. Rather than simply selling chips, Broadcom is packaging its chips with third-party components, such as memory, and delivering them to customers as complete systems. That approach raises total revenue but lowers overall gross margins because third-party components add costs that Broadcom passes through to customers. That shift has raised questions about the profitability of Broadcom's $73 billion AI backlog, which the company expects to convert into revenue over the next 18 months. Analysts believe Broadcom's orders from Anthropic, totaling $21 billion, are system sales — a sizable portion of the AI backlog that reinforces margin-related concerns. However, Broadcom emphasized that while gross margins will decline, operating margins should only dip slightly in 2026 because higher revenue can be spread over a larger base of fixed costs. Operating margin matters more than gross margin because it correlates more closely with free cash flow (FCF) generation, so it is a positive signal that Broadcom expects to protect operating margin. Lower Margins Can Still Mean Higher Profits Until recently, Broadcom had not engaged in system sales at scale. Although investors typically dislike margin deterioration, companies often enter lower-margin markets to capture faster revenue growth — a tradeoff Broadcom believes will play out in 2026. There are pragmatic reasons why system sales make sense for the Anthropic opportunity. Broadcom is not building a bespoke chip for Anthropic; instead, Anthropic will use tensor processing units (TPUs) that Broadcom originally developed for Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Broadcom's deep experience with TPUs positions it to deliver turnkey AI systems faster than Anthropic could assemble them independently. By providing ready-made systems, Broadcom can capture billions in new revenue and deepen relationships in the fast-growing AI infrastructure market. Still, investors should watch whether system sales become a long-term structural shift or remain a temporary growth lever. Overextending into lower-margin segments could pressure profitability if not managed carefully. Despite Uncertainty, the Long-Term Case Remains Strong Ultimately, the disappointment in Broadcom's earnings release stems from one dynamic: the introduction of uncertainty. Because investors do not yet know how far gross margins might fall, markets sold off. What investors do know is that Broadcom's track record in AI chip design is strong — second only to NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) in many respects. They also know Alphabet used TPUs to develop its advanced Gemini 3 model, and that analysts still see significant upside in the stock. Amid the uncertainty, those factors support a continued bullish outlook on Broadcom shares.
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