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Special Report The Last Time This Happened, Qualcomm Fell 10%By Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 1/1/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Qualcomm’s MACD just flipped bearish again, and the stock is already slipping after a strong run from April.
- A similar signal in early November was followed by a fast, double-digit drop, making this setup hard to ignore.
- The near-term “tell” is whether buyers defend the low-$170s, or whether the stock breaks down ahead of February earnings.
After showing many promising signs over the past quarter, shares of Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are flashing a warning signal as the new year begins. Just before Christmas, the stock's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) chart logged a bearish crossover, confirming a momentum shift that has continued into this week. The mega-cap tech stock closed just below $174 on Dec. 30 — still roughly 40% higher since April, but about 15% below the late-October surge that briefly reignited bullish enthusiasm. Since then, Qualcomm has narrowed into a tight range. While its long-term fundamentals remain supportive, its short-term technicals are flashing caution. Notably, the last time this setup appeared the outcome was unfavorable for bulls. Could history rhyme again? Let's take a closer look. What Qualcomm's Bearish MACD Crossover Signals Now While President Trump's official salary is $400,000 per year... his tax returns reveal he's been collecting up to $250,000 PER MONTH from one hidden source. Until recently, most Americans couldn't touch the type of investment that makes up this investment. But thanks to Executive Order 14330, that just changed. If you love investing in disruptive new companies... Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >> The MACD is a momentum indicator that tracks the relationship between two moving averages. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, it's regarded as a reliable sign that upside momentum is fading and sellers are gaining the upper hand. This isn't just an intraday wobble — the crossover that appeared just before Christmas has continued and picked up pace into this week. MACD signals tend to be more reliable when they appear after extended rallies. Qualcomm's run since April is one of its most sustained in years, so this divergence could be an early warning that buyers are stepping back rather than continuing to build positions. That doesn't mean a breakdown from here is inevitable, but it does suggest the stock is vulnerable if bulls fail to reassert control soon — especially given how it behaved the last time this signal showed up. The Last Time QCOM Flashed This Signal, Shares Dropped 10% The most recent comparison came in early November, less than two months ago. Qualcomm had printed a bearish MACD crossover after a strong run to multi-year highs. What followed was a swift decline of more than 10% over the next two weeks. That setup shares several similarities with the current one. The stock moved higher into mid-December after bottoming from November's correction, but increased selling pressure over the past fortnight has left the bulls largely absent. History rarely repeats perfectly, but it often rhymes. The point isn't that Qualcomm will definitely fall another 10% from here; it's that the stock is flashing a warning signal worth noting. Why This Qualcomm Setup Could Play Out Differently There are reasons not to be overly negative. Unlike early November, Qualcomm hasn't simply retreated from a multi-year high; it's trading within a tightening range. With the longer-term uptrend intact, the stock may be coiling into a pre-breakout setup rather than starting a breakdown. Its fundamentals also look as strong as they have all year, with expectations building for Qualcomm to once again top consensus in its first earnings report of 2026, due in early February. As we've highlighted recently, investor perception has been improving as the company's diversification efforts continue to build momentum. Especially when the broader equity market is in risk-on mode, this narrative supports higher prices over time, even if the near-term path is choppy. That longer-term view is reinforced by TradeSmith's Health Indicator, a volatility-based metric that has consistently ranked Qualcomm in the green zone for six consecutive months. What Bulls Must Do for Qualcomm to Start 2026 Strong For Qualcomm to start 2026 on the right foot, bulls need to reassert control soon. If the stock drifts below $172, the odds of another leg down similar to November's increase significantly. If buyers step in and momentum turns back up, this crossover could prove to be a false alarm within a broader uptrend. Qualcomm has earned some benefit of the doubt after its strong performance since April, but that goodwill is not unlimited. The next week or two should tell the story. A stock can coil only so long before choosing a direction. With fundamentals pointing higher and technicals pulling the other way, Qualcomm is approaching a decision point.
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