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How to Profit From Stocks That Underperform Earnings Expectations I’m always looking for stocks that don’t do much after earnings. Most traders chase the names that gap 10% or more, but sometimes the real opportunity shows up when a stock barely moves at all. That’s what I’m seeing with McDonald's (MCD). Historically, MCD has consistently underperformed the market maker’s expected move around earnings. It often moves about 1% while the expected move sits closer to 2-3%, which is unusually quiet for an earnings event. Quiet is tradable, especially with calendar spreads. I’m targeting the $322.50 put strike for a neutral setup. The goal isn’t direction — it’s allowing time decay and implied volatility (IV) crush to do the work as price gravitates toward that strike. Execution matters here. The bid-ask spread was moving when I entered, and I was filled at $50 while my Closing Playbook co-host, Kane Shieh, was filled at $48 on the same structure, which is exactly why I use limit orders instead of market orders. The Execution and Why Timing Matters The structure is straightforward: Sell the near-dated contract and buy the longer-dated contract at the same $322.50 strike. Maximum profit occurs if MCD pins that level after earnings, but perfection isn’t required. If the stock drifts a few dollars and IV compresses as expected, the trade can still produce solid returns. A clean pin can deliver 50-80%, while a modest fade back toward the middle of the range can generate 20-25%. Timing plays a larger role than most traders realize. For directional trades, I prefer Thursday earnings because there’s only one trading day for price to move, but with a neutral calendar, an extra day helps. More time allows the stock to stabilize and volatility to drain, both of which favor this structure. After earnings, the first hour is key. Ideally, price stays within the expected move early and then drifts back toward the center of that range, which is when these spreads typically expand. I also use a system that triggers alerts and routes orders automatically to improve consistency during tight entry windows. Tools aren’t required, but reducing hesitation can materially improve execution. Why I Like the Extra Day on This One For neutral earnings trades, time is an asset. The additional day after the announcement increases the probability of stabilization and gives IV more room to contract. MCD has a history of muted reactions around earnings, and that tendency is what makes this setup attractive. Sometimes the best trade is the one where nothing dramatic happens. — Nate Tucci And if you want to dive even deeper, you can always join the New Money Crew text chain, where we’ll send you a fourth stock that hits the scanner around midday! |
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Stop Overthinking Your Entries You probably already know this... But traders who have been using the Income Machine over the past few months have been going after the market daily… Without the hassle of overthinking what setup to trade... Without stressing about portfolio size... And without being overwhelmed about how long to hold a position before they exit! If you haven't already, there's no cause for alarm. You can still get FREE access to the Income Machine, as well as 3 juicy income trades available to you right now. The only thing I need to do is show you exactly how to use this one-of-a-kind engine... and you're well on your way to a comfortable trading experience. If you'd like to see what that looks like, you can head over here now. The New Money Crew Scanner is currently ranking Meta Platforms (META), Century Aluminum (CENX) and Alamos Gold (AGI) at the top, each posting three out of four stars with strong trend alignment and confirming option flow. META leads with a 100% monthly score supported by short- and long-term strength and increased volume. CENX and AGI each show 60% monthly scores with aligned trends and active capital rotation. These names are screening well because core momentum and money flow remain intact, even with mixed weekly or seasonal inputs. Check out the New Money Crew Scanner here. Glad to have you in the Crew, Nate Tucci Tucci Trades and New Money Crew Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more in my official Telegram channel! Important Note: No one from the Prosperity team or Graham Lindman Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram. |
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ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Nate Tucci Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. Unsubscribe |
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