| My Background Since I was in high school, I've been keenly interested in business, investing, and the economy. I have earned three degrees in economics (bachelors, masters, and PhD), have run successful businesses, and invested in almost every investment imaginable. I've taught hundreds of students at colleges and universities, including Columbia Business School in New York and Chapman University in California. I've worked for the government, non-profits, and for-profit businesses, and I've been a consultant to IBM and other major corporations. I've traveled the country and the world with my wife and family. I've attended and spoken at hundreds of investment conferences and met with thousands of investors. I've personally experienced booms and busts, bull and bear markets, prosperity and recession, and financial crises. I've invested in stocks, bonds, gold and silver, commodities, crypto, pre-IPO opportunities, futures, and options. These experiences have encouraged me to write over a dozen books advising people on economic and financial topics. For the past 45 years, I was the editor in chief of Forecasts & Strategies. I'm happy to say my predictions and recommendations have improved over time. Last year, all 15 of my recommendations in Forecasts & Strategies were profitable, and my portfolio rose an average of 35%, triple the Dow. I added two more recommendations in 2026, and so for ALL of them are profitable, with the average return up 10% since the first of the year. My First Question: Stock Market Crash? To get the ball rolling, here's my first Q&A: Q: Last Friday we saw silver crash. Could this happen to the stock market too, like the one on October 19, 1987, when the market fell 22.5% in one day? A: Silver did indeed collapse by 33% last Friday, falling from $120 to $71 an ounce. Bear in mind that silver had tripled in value in one year, so a severe correction might be expected. The Comex recently raised its margin requirements on silver and gold due to excessive leveraged positions in precious metals, and that alone worried the bulls. Selling started in London and fell all day long in New York. Could the same thing happen to the stock market? Since Black Monday in 1987, Wall Street has experienced several bear markets, but not a crash of 22% or more. I well remember the stock market crash on October 19, 1987 - it was on my birthday! I'm glad it hasn't happened again. There are two factors have been kept a crash from occurring on Wall Street… First, are the circuit breakers. To discourage panic selling, the stock exchange will halt trading for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 declines 7%, then another 15 minutes if it declines 13%, and then stops trading entirely if it declines 20%. Second, right after the 1987 crash, the federal government created the Plunge Protection Team. This was an informal name for the Working Group on Financial Markets, which consists of the Treasury Secretary, and chairmen of the Fed, the SEC, and the CFTC. They have the power to intervene in the stock market to prevent a crash, including the closing of the markets, or to buy any assets, including stock market futures. These two factors won't stop a bear market, but it makes a full-scale crash of 20% or more unlikely. Sir Harry Schultz said it best: "Never underestimate the size of a panic, nor the power of the politician." (p. 11.) This quote and others above can be found in my book, The Maxims of Wall Street. Alexander Green says about my book: "Maxims is a crash course in financial freedom. Mark Skousen has collected a treasure trove of proverbs, slogans, stories and juicy quotes. I still refer to its regularly. You should too." Have a question for America's Economist? Ask it here and I will seek to answer it next week. Good investing, AEIOU, Mark |
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